US 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Through 5%, Will It Peak in October and Turn Down? | Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik

Summary

Park Se-ik and Choi Ho review a BNK Investment Securities downgrade of Samsung Electronics and a cautious outlook on SK hynix, both tied to slowing memory demand and rising supply. They also cover sector rotation in the Korean market, the debate between Jensen Huang and Dario Amodei on AI development speed, and the US 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5%. Park Se-ik concludes that the 10-year yield may peak in October and turn lower, drawing a parallel to 2018.

• BNK Investment Securities cut Samsung Electronics' target price and rating, citing limited upside after foundry recovery expectations.
• BNK maintained a Hold on SK hynix, seeing solid AI server demand but slowing momentum and worsening memory supply-demand.
• Korean market leadership shifted toward secondary batteries, power equipment, financials, and defense, while securities and auto parts lagged.
• The AI safety debate contrasted Jensen Huang's push to accelerate adoption with Dario Amodei's call to pace frontier model development.
• US 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%, raising concerns about prolonged range-bound markets and high-rate pressure.
• Park Se-ik expects the 10-year yield to peak in October and fall, citing seasonal patterns and the 2018 yield-break analogy.