The Era of Global Disorder and Chaos: The Middle East and Arctic Are Ablaze; The Prelude to the Energy Hegemony War | Dr. Cho Han-beom, Chair Research Fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification (Full Version)

Summary

Dr. Cho Han-beom analyzes the Trump administration's foreign policy through the lens of energy hegemony, arguing that US pressure on Venezuela and Iran is aimed at controlling oil supply and prices to counter China and Russia. He discusses China's military purges and systemic corruption, the rupture of US-NATO relations over Greenland, and the shift toward a no-polar world. He also outlines investment-relevant implications, including a bias toward lower oil prices, risks to US Treasuries, a nuclear power renaissance driven by AI electricity demand, and South Korea's resilience and bargaining power.

• Trump's forceful actions in Venezuela and Iran are driven by energy hegemony goals, not democracy promotion.
• US policy aims to control oil supply and prices to pressure China and Russia and contain inflation.
• China's military purges reveal deep corruption and weaken the regime's internal durability.
• Trump's Western Hemisphere strategy and Greenland ambitions are straining NATO and US alliances.
• The global order is shifting from multipolarity toward a leaderless no-polar world.
• AI's electricity demand is expected to drive a nuclear power renaissance.
• Foreign holdings of US Treasuries represent a potential systemic risk.
• South Korea is presented as resilient with economic, defense, and cultural bargaining power.