Iran May Be in Throes of 'Slow Decay,' Chatham House Says

Summary

Sanam Vakil of Chatham House discusses Iran's intensifying crackdown on anti-government protests and the range of possible outcomes for the Islamic Republic, from collapse or revolution to prolonged slow decay. She highlights near-term economic pain for Iran, including further currency depreciation, rising inflation, and uncertainty, plus regional spillover risks involving Turkey and the UAE. If the regime changes and the economy opens up, Iran is seen as one of the last frontier economies, though she cautions that governance and regulatory transition would be slow and difficult.

• Sanam Vakil says the Islamic Republic may face collapse, revolution, or prolonged slow decay.
• She expects internal pain for Iran and a very bumpy year with further currency depreciation and rising inflation.
• Turkey and the UAE have been trading partners trying to keep Iran's economy afloat, a regional spillover to watch.
• A change in the regime could stabilize Iran and the region, but governance and regulatory reform would not be quick or easy.
• If the Iranian economy opens up, it is seen as one of the last frontier economies with significant business opportunities.
• She notes that removing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei alone would not fix everything.