Name: Henrik Zeberg: Why Bonds May Be Too Cheap
Uploaded: 2026-09-16T20:00:06+00:00
Duration: 2795 s

Speakers

Henrik Zeberg — Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock

Summary

Henrik Zeberg argues the market is in a late-cycle final melt-up, with the Nasdaq potentially surging to 37,000-39,000 before a sharp reversal. He expects bonds/treasuries are too cheap, the dollar to weaken near term before a bust-driven rally, copper to top, and another crypto euphoria led by Ethereum and altcoins. He warns the AI/big-tech bubble and weak consumer/labor backdrop make the eventual unwind potentially severe.

Henrik views the cycle as late-stage, with a weak labor market and consumer under the surface.
He expects a final equity melt-up, especially in the Nasdaq, before a fast crash.
He thinks bonds/Treasuries are too cheap and the Fed's rate level is wrong.
He is bearish the dollar near term but expects a major dollar rally during the bust.
He sees copper near a top and expects post-crisis strength in commodities, gold, and silver.
He expects another crypto rally, with Ethereum and altcoins making new highs while Bitcoin may only bounce.
He warns the AI/big-tech bubble is unstable and could burst without an obvious catalyst.

Ideas

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 10:55

Treasuries too cheap, labor market weak.

Henrik thinks bonds/treasuries are mispriced and too cheap because the Fed's policy rate is at the wrong level for an economy with a standstill labor market and a weak consumer. He argues inflation will fall once demand weakens, and the Fed will eventually have to respond to its employment mandate, making current yields attractive.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 11:07

Big Tech, AI valuations dangerously overextended.

He sees Big Tech/AI valuations as insanely high, with circular revenue recognition and unstable underlying structure. He does not want to be long when the AI bubble finally bursts, which he expects to be severe.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 25:46

Copper near a major top.

He believes copper is very close to a potential top. The bullish copper narrative is circular, and history from 2008 shows industrial metals can spike then crash when the real economy stalls. If copper starts falling, the macro picture changes materially.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 30:47

Nasdaq melt-up to 37,000-39,000 before crash.

He expects a final melt-up in US equities/Nasdaq toward 37,000-39,000, possibly within one to three months, because short-term yields have not dropped sharply yet and the market resembles the late-1990s/2000 blow-off phase. He warns this parabolic move would likely be followed by a very fast 40%-type crash.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 36:31

Dollar bearish now, DXY to 93-94.

He is bearish the dollar now because the business cycle is late, the Fed will eventually have to acknowledge the weak labor market, and a less hawkish Fed should send the dollar lower. He targets DXY around 93-94.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 40:34

Gold may be sold in cash crunch.

During the cash-shortage/bust phase, he is not certain it is good to hold gold or similar assets. Even gold hoarded by Asian countries may be sold to meet dollar and liquidity needs, so it can be pressured in the initial crisis.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 41:20

Post-crisis Fed stimulus lifts commodities, gold, silver.

After the bust, he is very bullish commodities, gold, and silver because the Fed will likely stimulate again and inflation expectations should rise, creating a strong environment for hard assets. This is the phase after the initial deflationary/liquidity shock.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 43:44

Crypto euphoria returns; ETH and altcoins lead.

He expects a rotation of capital from AI/stocks into crypto and another euphoric rally. He sees Ethereum making a new all-time high and the altcoin index making a new all-time high, while Bitcoin may only bounce to around $115,000 rather than a new high. He would exit crypto once the dollar bottoms.

Henrik Zeberg: Why Bonds May Be Too Cheap

Summary

Ideas

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