Name: Sustained Yen Weakness Isn't Vs Dollar: 3-Minutes MLIV
Uploaded: 2026-01-14T08:42:47+00:00
Duration: 205 s

Speakers

Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist

Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

The MLIV segment discusses a broad metals rally, structural bullishness on China and Hong Kong equities, and a Japan macro trade of long stocks, short JGBs, and short yen. Mark Cudmore attributes metals strength to Fed independence concerns, expected dollar weakness, and industrial demand from global fiscal stimulus. He prefers Hong Kong stocks over mainland China and favors short yen in crosses rather than dollar-yen because he is bearish the dollar in 2026.

Gold, silver, tin, and copper are rallying to new highs.
Metals are supported by Fed independence worries, a weaker dollar outlook, and industrial demand from fiscal stimulus.
China and Hong Kong equities are still viewed as structural long-term bulls.
Hong Kong stocks are seen as the better derivative play on China and a potential outperformer versus US stocks.
Japan trade: long Nikkei, short JGBs, and short yen.
Short yen in crosses is preferred over dollar-yen because of a bearish 2026 dollar view.
Crypto and speculative froth are bouncing, but the debasement trade is only a conditional watch.

Ideas

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 0:16

Buy metals on industrial, Fed-driven demand

Metals are rallying because fiscal stimulus in Germany, the US, and Japan plus a still-okay Chinese economy support industrial demand, while the attack on Fed independence and an expectation of dollar weakness are driving precious metals. He agrees it is a risk-off metals buy, but stops short of calling it a full debasement trade.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 1:41

Long Hong Kong and China stocks

He and his team are structural bulls on China, especially Hong Kong stocks, because Chinese authorities want a sustainable equity rally and have clearly supported the market. Hong Kong is the better derivative play on China and can outperform US stocks over the long term, though China's residential property bust and history of boom-bust cycles make a smooth sustainable rally difficult.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 2:43

Long Nikkei, short JGBs and yen

Japan is permanently stagnant with deeply negative real yields and too much debt to afford positive real yields, so he remains a structural JGB and yen bear. He also sees technical hedging flows supporting the Nikkei as it rises. He prefers short yen in crosses rather than dollar-yen because he is bearish the dollar in 2026, and says all three elements work: long stocks, short JGBs, and short yen.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 2:43

Long Nikkei, short JGBs and yen

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 3:12

Bearish US dollar in 2026

He expects the dollar to weaken this year and says he is bearish the dollar in 2026, partly because the attack on Fed independence pressures monetary policy to be easier than orthodox economics would suggest. This is why he prefers short yen in crosses rather than dollar-yen.

Sustained Yen Weakness Isn't Vs Dollar: 3-Minutes MLIV

Summary

Ideas

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