Gold Momentum Explodes: ‘No Bear Case For Gold’, Says Analyst | Kai Hoffmann

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  October 03, 2025 at 18:39  |  27:18  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Kai Hoffmann — Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners

Summary

Kai Hoffmann of Soar Financial Partners says gold has no credible bear case, citing central-bank buying, global debt, geopolitics, and returning ETF inflows. He sees institutional money driving gold miners, especially large producers and then mid-tier producers and developers, while silver and copper offer more mixed or event-driven setups. He avoids lithium and rare-earth equities because of China-driven price volatility and government-subsidy risk.

  • Gold is supported by central-bank demand, debt, geopolitics, weaker dollar, and ETF inflows.
  • Gold miners are benefiting from margin expansion and institutional allocation; GDX leads.
  • Hoffmann prefers mid-tier gold producers and developers for the next 12 months.
  • Silver is stuck near $42 but silver miners are seeing strong margins.
  • Copper demand trend remains intact, though deficit timing keeps slipping.
  • US copper permitting, especially in Arizona, is a key catalyst to watch.
  • Lithium and rare earths are avoided due to China-driven volatility.
  • Financing activity and M&A are picking up, but grassroots explorers still lag.
Ideas
Kai Hoffmann Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners 3:59
No credible bear case for gold.
Hoffmann sees no credible bear case for gold: world peace is unlikely, global debt is $340 trillion and rising, central banks are buying gold because they distrust the SWIFT system, the dollar is weaker, ETF inflows have returned, and lower rates help a non-yielding asset. A global recession could hit gold temporarily, but the structural drivers remain intact.
GLD HIGH
Kai Hoffmann Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners 6:31
Gold miners offer huge margin expansion.
Institutions are allocating to gold miners because margin expansion is finally being recognized: producers are generating roughly $2,000/oz margins, free cash flow yields of 15-18%, and cheap P/E and P/NAV multiples; GDX is at all-time highs as larger producers and royalty companies lead, with Q3 average realized gold prices likely adding another roughly $200/oz to margins.
GDX HIGH
Kai Hoffmann Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners 19:39
Copper demand trend intact, timing uncertain.
Copper is slowly recovering from the tariff shock and the long-term demand trend from electrification and AI is intact; the West needs more copper. Hoffmann is skeptical that the widely forecast supply deficit will arrive as soon as many expect because these timelines keep slipping, but he says the overall trend is right.
COPPER MED
Kai Hoffmann Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners 19:46
Silver stuck below $42 resistance.
Silver has not broken out and remains stuck near $42 resistance. It has some catching-up potential, but about half its demand is industrial, and that linkage plus a rising gold/silver ratio has kept it from outperforming gold. It is a monitorable setup rather than a clean bullish trade.
SILVER MED
Kai Hoffmann Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners 20:22
Silver miners have massive margins.
Silver producers are enjoying massive margins with silver around $42 versus all-in sustaining costs near $22, and companies with silver exposure are finding it easy to raise capital. Good silver projects are scarce, which supports existing producers.
SIL MED
Kai Hoffmann Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners 20:48
US copper permits could spark rally.
The White House permitting signal around the Resolution copper mine in Arizona could trigger a rally in US copper equities. Hoffmann flags Ivanhoe Electric and Arizona Sonoran as Arizona copper names moving ahead, and says Alaska copper projects are also worth watching; once the White House gives a signal, those stocks should rally.
IE ASCU.TO MED
Kai Hoffmann Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners 22:47
Avoid lithium and rare-earth volatility.
Hoffmann avoids critical-minerals, lithium and rare-earth equities because pricing is heavily influenced by China, price swings are extreme, and there are not enough quality listed players. He says he has been burned and prefers to miss those opportunities.
REMX LITHIUM HIGH
Kai Hoffmann Founder and Managing Director, Soar Financial Partners 25:47
Mid-tier gold names offer best upside.
Capital is trickling down from bullion and major producers into mid-tier gold producers and developers. Mid-tiers with all-in sustaining costs around $3,000 have enormous percentage margin leverage, and developers moving up the Lassonde curve into construction financing should see the most upside over the next 12 months; Hoffmann says this is what his fund is buying.
Gold mid-tier producers GDXJ HIGH
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This The David Lin Report video, published October 03, 2025, features Kai Hoffmann discussing GLD, GDX, COPPER, SILVER, SIL, IE, ASCU.TO, REMX, LITHIUM, Gold mid-tier producers, GDXJ. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kai Hoffmann  · Tickers: GLD, GDX, COPPER, SILVER, SIL, IE, ASCU.TO, REMX, LITHIUM, Gold mid-tier producers, GDXJ