Name: ‘Early Phase Of WW3’: What Happens When Iran Retaliates? | Doomberg
Uploaded: 2025-06-23T18:54:55+00:00
Duration: 1856 s

Speakers

Doomberg — Energy & commodities research collective

David Lin — Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News

Summary

Doomberg discusses the Middle East escalation, arguing the oil market is not pricing a Strait of Hormuz closure. He sees de-escalation as the base case but models tail risks including oil spikes, a Brent-WTI spread blowout, LNG disruption, EU damage, and defense supply-chain reshoring. He also says the nuclear renaissance is real and that small modular reactors may benefit from energy-security concerns.

Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, but the closure has not been enacted.
Doomberg says the oil market is pricing no closure and an imminent de-escalation.
He sees a 20-25% geopolitical risk premium in oil, with a ceasefire implying low-60s oil.
If the Strait closes, he expects no single global oil price, a Brent-WTI spread blowout, and possible $200+ oil.
Qatar LNG through Hormuz could put 20% of global LNG supply at risk, with Dutch TTF not pricing it.
Defense industry is seen benefiting from protracted wars, European rearmament, and supply-chain reshoring.
Nuclear renaissance remains real, and SMRs may benefit from decentralized energy security.
Base case is a limited missile exchange followed by a ceasefire, with markets not signaling World War III.

Ideas

Doomberg Head Writer of the Doomberg Substack 1:17

Oil underpricing Hormuz closure risk.

Doomberg argues the oil market is pricing in that the Strait of Hormuz will not be closed and that hostilities will end soon, so it is discounting the closure risk substantially. If the Strait were closed, there would be no single global oil price and crude could spike to $200 or higher, while a ceasefire would likely send oil back to the low 60s; roughly 20-25% of the current price is a geopolitical risk premium. The base case is de-escalation, but the non-priced closure tail makes oil worth watching.

Doomberg Head Writer of the Doomberg Substack 19:08

Hormuz closure widens Brent-WTI spread.

In a Strait of Hormuz closure, Doomberg expects the global oil market to fragment and the WTI-Brent spread to blow out. He reasons the US would likely restrict or shut in crude and refined product exports to keep domestic prices down, while Europe and other importers would pay higher seaborne Brent-linked prices.

Doomberg Head Writer of the Doomberg Substack 21:10

Dutch TTF underpricing Hormuz LNG risk.

Doomberg flags that Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, has closed its airspace and all its LNG is loaded on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz. A closure could take 20% of global LNG supply offline, yet the Dutch TTF landed LNG contract is not out of whack, so significant volatility would follow if the risk materializes.

Doomberg Head Writer of the Doomberg Substack 24:01

Defense industry has durable tailwinds.

Doomberg says the defense trade has durable tailwinds: a protracted war in Ukraine, Europe's rearmament with US missile and armament stocks at dangerously low levels, Congressional pressure to allocate more to defense, Trump's push to onshore critical manufacturing, and the need to insulate US military supply chains from Chinese influence. The latest Middle East escalation reinforces that agenda.

Doomberg Head Writer of the Doomberg Substack 27:43

Nuclear renaissance remains real.

Doomberg cautions that the recent uranium price move does not clearly show a Middle East war signal, but he states the nuclear renaissance is real. That supports a long-term positive view on nuclear energy as an investable theme, even if the immediate uranium spike is not cleanly tied to the conflict.

Doomberg Head Writer of the Doomberg Substack 27:53

SMRs benefit from energy-security shift.

Doomberg says the nuclear renaissance is real and that the targeting of large centralized energy infrastructure and talk of closing the Strait may be bullish for small modular reactors. Because SMRs are smaller and distributed, they create many more targets and are easier to protect than gigawatt-scale reactors clustered as single points of risk in a world where attacks on civilian energy assets are normalized.

‘Early Phase Of WW3’: What Happens When Iran Retaliates? | Doomberg

Summary

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