Name: Are Markets On Verge Of Imploding? Trader Reveals Key Signals | Jason Shapiro
Uploaded: 2025-06-22T20:06:04+00:00
Duration: 2083 s

Speakers

Jason Shapiro — Founder, Crowded Market Report

David Lin — Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News

Summary

Jason Shapiro, founder of Crowded Market Report, discusses how positioning and sentiment indicators shape his market views. He sees US equities, gold, AI-related energy/nuclear/uranium, and Bitcoin as long opportunities, while highlighting a long gold/short silver pair and a bullish crude oil setup. He remains short yen/long USDJPY from an earlier entry but would not initiate a new short. He also warns that price-based contrarianism and overtrading are common mistakes.

Jason Shapiro says positioning is not overcrowded in US stocks and sees more upside.
He uses Commitment of Traders data and put-call ratios to find crowded positioning extremes.
He favors gold over silver and likes a long gold/short silver relative trade.
He says crude oil bottomed in May and has room higher despite Middle East noise.
He calls AI the dominant long theme, favoring energy, nuclear, uranium, and URA.
He likes Bitcoin as institutional buying grows while retail sells.
He remains short yen/long USDJPY but would not initiate a new short.
He warns against trading on price alone and overtrading.

Ideas

Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 0:26

Positioning not crowded; stocks can go higher

Jason Shapiro says the S&P/stock market is not overcrowded. Investors sold heavily into the April tariff/liquidation dip and have not bought back enough, leaving them less long and underweight relative to prior highs. Sentiment is neutral-to-scared because of Middle East and trade risks, so unless positioning and psychology change, he believes the ultimate path is higher, with volatility along the way and a good second half for stocks.

Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 15:27

Stay short yen, but no new entry

He remains short yen/long USD/JPY from an earlier entry because yen positioning had become extremely crowded. The yen topped in early May while the dollar kept making new lows, but he would not initiate a fresh short here because risk/reward is worse than his original entry. He would not be long yen and would prefer other currencies if trying to short the dollar.

Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 17:50

Money printing and light positioning support gold

Central banks and governments keep printing money/liquidity, debasing fiat currencies, which should benefit gold over time. Despite gold's big run, speculators have actually sold into the rally and are less long than three months ago, so positioning has room to push gold higher. If he were long a metal, gold is the one he would prefer.

Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 23:18

Long gold, short crowded silver

Silver speculator positioning became extremely crowded long, around the 98th percentile of historical positioning, after its sharp run, while gold positioning is less crowded and speculators have sold into gold's rally. That makes long gold/short silver an attractive relative-value trade.

Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 24:01

Oil bull phase has room higher

Crude oil bottomed on May 5 despite OPEC/Saudi news that should have been bearish, and it has been in a bull phase for a month before the latest Middle East headlines. He sees the geopolitical news as noise and believes positioning/psychology are not crowded or chasing, so oil has room to continue higher, though he is nervous about the broader implications.

Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 27:14

AI spending benefits energy and uranium

The dominant long theme is AI and the infrastructure that benefits from it. Spending into AI is not going to stop because of Middle East conflict, Fed decisions, dollar moves, or gold. He specifically cites energy, nuclear energy, uranium, and the URA uranium ETF as beneficiaries, notes nuclear/uranium names are strong, and would not fade those prices. If someone thinks AI is a scam, he says wait for market confirmation before shorting, which is not happening now.

Jason Shapiro Founder, Crowded Market Report 30:31

Institutions buying Bitcoin, retail selling

Institutional positioning in Bitcoin appears to be increasing, with large average buy tickets from institutions while retail selling in small amounts. He is not a Bitcoin believer philosophically, but as an asset he likes Bitcoin on the long side right now.

Are Markets On Verge Of Imploding? Trader Reveals Key Signals | Jason Shapiro

Summary

Ideas

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