It's too soon to know if the U.S.-Iran truce can hold, says Evercore's Roger Altman

Summary

• Roger Altman argues it is "too soon to know" if the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire is durable, calling it a "fragile truce."
• He details several significant, unresolved issues that could cause the truce to break down: control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, its ballistic missile capability, and regional hostilities in Lebanon and the Persian Gulf.
• Highlights a major strategic point: if Iran ends up controlling the Strait of Hormuz, it would be "quite a victory for Iran" and viewed as "unacceptable" by the United States.
• Notes the unrealistic timeline, stating negotiating a true peace agreement on a matter this complex typically takes "a year or two, not two weeks."
• Points out that Israel is currently attacking Lebanon, treating it as outside the U.S.-Iran agreement, and Iran is responding with attacks on the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
• Concludes that there are "huge uncertainties" surrounding sanctions relief and unfreezing Iranian assets.
• The overarching market implication is high geopolitical uncertainty and risk, with no clear near-term resolution in sight.