Investors Weigh Impact of Iran War, Expectations For Credit Market Economy | Real Yield 4/17/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 17, 2026 at 19:15  |  44:17  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ashok Bhatia — Co-Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Fixed Income, Neuberger Berman

Summary

The episode discusses the market impact of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices falling and bonds rallying. Guests analyze the fixed income outlook, including expectations for Fed easing, curve steepening trades, and opportunities in private credit. They also touch on risks from AI disruption and inflation, along with municipal finance topics.

  • The Strait of Hormuz reopening eases oil supply concerns, leading to a bond rally and lower yields.
  • Meghan Swiber and Ashok Bhatia expect the Fed to cut rates later this year due to a weakening labor market and well-behaved inflation.
  • Swiber recommends being long the front end and belly of the Treasury curve and using curve steepeners.
  • Bhatia sees the curve steepening but in a range-bound manner.
  • Lindsay Rosner notes that bank loans and European high-yield have underperformed due to AI disruption and inflation concerns.
  • John Cocke sees a great entry point for private credit as dispersion creates opportunities.
  • The episode also covers municipal finance topics like a proposed tax on second homes in New York and AI tools in schools.
  • Upcoming events include a confirmation hearing for Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh.
Trade Ideas
Meghan Swiber 6:10
Long front-end and belly of Treasury curve.
We are long rates because we expect the Fed to cut rates due to a K-shaped economy where the top income cohort can weather higher oil prices but the bottom part is struggling. Economists are calling for two more cuts this year. We like being long the front end and belly of the curve.
SHY HIGH
Meghan Swiber 6:10
Long front-end and belly of Treasury curve.
The curve can steepen more as easing expectations come back; the market is pricing only a 50% chance of one ease by year-end, so as expectations for cuts increase, the front end should rally more than the back end, leading to steepening, though it may be more range-bound than in past years.
TLT HIGH
John Cocke 26:31
Great entry point for private credit.
We are seeing a great entry point for private credit because dispersion of outcomes and reduced competition create opportunities to deploy capital at attractive terms.
BIZD HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published April 17, 2026, features Meghan Swiber, John Cocke discussing SHY, TLT, BIZD. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Meghan Swiber, John Cocke  · Tickers: SHY, TLT, BIZD