Approach the US market with optimism, but stay disciplined in stock selection

Summary

Choi Il-ho of Chesley Investment Advisory reviews the US market's Q4 performance and outlines a selective bullish stance. He notes high volatility followed by a recovery led by large-cap growth and semiconductors, while mid/small-cap thematic stocks lagged. He argues that lower market rates and better short-term liquidity are needed for a mid/small-cap rebound, so investors should focus on earnings-backed large-cap growth. He also flags Tesla's Q4 deliveries and the path of the 10-year Treasury yield.

• Q4 US equities were volatile but recovered, with sector and stock differentiation over broad breadth.
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led, helped by memory and semiconductor equipment names.
• Mid/small-cap thematic stocks fell 30-70% and have not fully recovered.
• High 10-year yields and tight short-term funding are key obstacles for mid/small caps.
• Fed rate cuts and falling energy/housing inflation may help yields stabilize downward.
• The speaker favors large-cap growth with verified earnings over mid/small caps.
• Tesla's Q4 delivery numbers are a near-term event to watch.
• The overall market outlook is optimistic, but stock selection should remain disciplined.