Thinking in Decades w/ Clay Finck (TIP781)
Speakers
Clay Finck
— Host, The FinTwit Podcast
Stig Brodersen
— Host, The Investor's Podcast
Summary
Clay Finck joins Stig Brodersen to discuss his 2025 portfolio moves, including new positions in Meta, Interactive Brokers, and Booking Holdings, and his continued holdings in Constellation Software, Topicus, Lumine, Dino Polska, and a Japanese stock. The conversation covers his preference for dominant US franchises alongside international value, especially Poland and Japan, and his view that AI-driven selloffs in vertical market software may be overblown. Clay also explains portfolio sizing, growth-at-a-reasonable-price, and how value investing principles shape his career and happiness.
- Clay added Meta, Interactive Brokers, and Booking Holdings in 2025.
- He favors founder-led, dominant US franchises while keeping international exposure for valuation and diversification.
- Poland and Japan are highlighted for attractive valuations, with currency and demographic risks noted for Japan.
- Constellation Software, Topicus, and Lumine are core holdings; Clay sees recent AI-related selloffs as likely overblown.
- Portfolio construction includes full positions around 10%, limited cash, and selling or trimming to fund new ideas.
- Clay prefers growth at a reasonable price over deep value due to his age and long runway.
- The episode also covers anti-fragility, anchor holdings, and personal lessons from value investing.
Ideas
Favor dominant US large-cap franchises.
Clay previously had a bias against large-cap US companies and invested more internationally, but in 2025 he gained a greater appreciation for the dominance of US franchises, partly through guest conversations, and shifted attention back to his home market. He added high-quality US large caps and believes dominant US franchises can compound free cash flow per share over the long run.
Meta is founder-led AI compounder after selloff.
Clay added Meta in 2025 after watching it for years and after a Q3 selloff from about $750 to below $600. He views it through sidecar investing: Zuckerberg is a generational founder-operator who has navigated mobile, acquired Instagram and WhatsApp, and is now positioning Meta as an AI beneficiary. Meta's apps already run on machine learning, the increased AI capex doubles down on what works, and with adjusted P/E around 22 against 20% earnings growth, he sees downside protection and long-term EPS compounding, with WhatsApp monetization still early.
IBKR founder-led global broker with long runway.
Clay added Interactive Brokers after covering it on the show. He is a customer and likes its global market access, low trading costs, and avoidance of payment-for-order-flow conflicts. Founder Thomas Peterffy is an outsider long-term CEO who built a differentiated, founder-owned business. Account growth has compounded over 30% annually for five years with low marketing spend; only about 4 million accounts leaves a long global TAM runway. Clay paid a premium with limited margin of safety, but sees the growth runway as the margin of safety.
Added Booking during tariff tantrum.
Clay added Booking Holdings in 2025 during the spring tariff tantrum after covering the company on the show. The transcript gives limited company-specific reasoning, but the purchase is explicitly stated and framed as taking advantage of a market dislocation.
International valuations attractive and diversify US risk.
Clay maintains non-US exposure because valuations generally look more attractive and international markets can add diversification if capital flows out of the US. He acknowledges that domicile is nuanced because many companies do business globally, but he sees a role for international holdings as a hedge against US market concentration and capital-flow shifts.
Poland offers underfollowed growth and cheap valuations.
Clay owns two Polish stocks. He likes Poland because it transitioned from socialism to capitalism around 1989 and has grown GDP per capita faster than developed peers like Canada and the UK. The market is underfollowed, and broader populations in such markets tend to be less interested in stocks, which helps explain attractive valuations. He does not underwrite a major country-wide multiple rerating.
Dino Polska is a boring Polish compounder.
Dino Polska is one of Clay's Polish holdings. He calls it a classic boring compounder run by an outsider CEO who avoids public appearances. It operates supermarkets across Poland, generates high returns on capital, reinvests everything into organic growth, and management has executed well. The founder owns 51%, and Clay notes it is not an AI play.
Japan cheap valuations with governance reform catalyst.
Clay owns one Japanese stock and finds Japanese valuations the cheapest among his holdings, which can increase margin of safety. He sees a case because corporate governance reforms encourage more capital returns, and Japan is overlooked relative to the US. However, he factors in population decline, low domestic stock-market interest, and currency risk; he requires a higher earnings-growth hurdle for Japanese companies, such as around 16% versus 12% for a US company.
Topicus capital deployment and valuation disconnect.
Topicus is a core holding and Constellation Software spin-off. Clay added to it after it executed well and deployed record capital into acquisitions, about €150 million in 2024 to roughly €780 million in 2025. The stock later fell on AI fears and Mark Leonard's resignation, but he thinks the market overreacted; Topicus trades around 17x price-to-free-cash-flow, the lowest ever, while he expects earnings to grow and sees consistent 20% growth. He treats it as a full position to hold.
Lumine is another Constellation spin-off compounder.
Lumine is the other Constellation Software spin-off Clay owns. He describes it as a similar story to Topicus, implies it has executed well, and says he built a full position at a fair price and finds it easy to hold. The thesis is brief but positive and tied to the Constellation playbook.
Uber AV disruption threat likely overstated near-term.
Stig uses Uber as an example of how markets overestimate short-term technology disruption. He acknowledges autonomous vehicles will eventually disrupt mobility and delivery, but argues it is not imminent: Waymo's trip growth, while fast, is still less than 1% of Uber's current trips. This suggests the near-term AV threat to Uber may be overstated.
Constellation VMS AI fears are overblown.
Constellation Software is a core Clay holding. He argues the recent AI-driven selloff is largely overblown until evidence proves otherwise. Vertical market software has deep, long-held customer relationships, which he expects could make these companies AI beneficiaries rather than victims. He is open to the possibility of disruption but says it is nearly impossible to predict timing; he would reconsider if evidence showed the solutions were less sticky.
Markel, Fairfax, Brookfield as anchor candidates.
Clay likes the anti-fragile anchor role Berkshire plays in Stig's portfolio, but says Berkshire's size makes it less suitable for him. He suggests Markel, Fairfax Financial, or Brookfield Corporation could serve a similar role: durable companies that may not grow fastest but can weather drawdowns, invest countercyclically, and reinvest capital more aggressively because they are smaller.
Uber advertising and platform still early innings.
Clay sees Uber as positioning itself as a platform for gig workers, potentially allowing drivers to earn from other tasks like AI labeling while waiting. He also points to Uber's data advantage in targeted advertising: advertising is already a billion-dollar revenue business growing fast, and he views it as very early innings relative to mobility and delivery, though he acknowledges his bias.
Up Next
This We Study Billionaires video, published January 03, 2026, features Clay Finck, Stig Brodersen discussing SPY, META, IBKR, BKNG, ACWX, EPOL, DNP.WA, EWJ, Topicus, Lumine Group, UBER, CSU.TO, MKL, FFH.TO, BN. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Clay Finck, Stig Brodersen · Tickers: SPY, META, IBKR, BKNG, ACWX, EPOL, DNP.WA, EWJ, Topicus, Lumine Group, UBER, CSU.TO, MKL, FFH.TO, BN