Melek: Gold is moving as a classic safe haven amid rising geopolitical risk
Speakers
Bart Melek
— Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities
Summary
Bart Melek of TD Securities discusses how geopolitical risk, especially around Venezuela and US interventionism, is supporting gold as a classic safe haven. He also cites expectations of a more dovish Fed as a monetary tailwind for gold. Melek says silver and platinum are benefiting from safe-haven demand plus their own tight supply-demand fundamentals, while a potential Venezuelan supply disruption could trigger crude short covering and higher oil prices.
- Bart Melek explains gold's safe-haven bid amid geopolitical risk.
- He cites US interventionism and possible Venezuela conflict.
- Dovish Fed expectations are a monetary tailwind for gold.
- Silver demand is tied to AI, solar, and data centers, with a structural deficit.
- Platinum demand is stronger than expected while recycling is lower.
- A Venezuela oil-flow disruption could cause crude short covering and higher prices.
- Long-term Venezuela oil development could benefit involved companies, but not near term.
Ideas
Bullish gold on geopolitics and dovish Fed
Melek sees gold supported as a classic safe haven amid rising geopolitical risk and US interventionism, with investors potentially preferring physical gold over the dollar or US equities. He also cites expectations of a more dovish Fed and lower rates as a monetary tailwind, and says a Venezuelan oil-supply disruption that lifts crude would be positive for gold as well.
Venezuela supply risk may lift crude
If Venezuela tensions worsen, Melek says Venezuelan oil flows could be interrupted after prior US tanker actions have already caused some fields to shutter capacity. That could trigger short covering in crude and higher prices, and he notes it would also be positive for gold.
Silver gains on AI demand and deficits
Melek says silver follows gold as a safe haven and has its own strong supply-demand fundamentals, including a structural deficit. He highlights industrial demand tied to AI, solar generation, and electronic components in data centers as key support.
Platinum strong on deficit, recycling shortfall
Melek says platinum has strong supply-demand fundamentals with a structural deficit. Demand is stronger than expected and recycling is lower than hoped, which could keep the platinum market very strong, with an added safe-haven tailwind.
