Deepwater's Gene Munster on what's ahead for tech in 2026
Speakers
Gene Munster
— Managing Partner, Deepwater Asset Management
Summary
Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, says the AI trade is still early and expects two to three more years of Nasdaq gains, with AI-first companies outperforming. He owns Nvidia and expects 65%+ revenue growth, sees Google as a top 2026 pick on Gemini distribution, and highlights Foxconn's revenue beat as evidence of durable AI demand. He also previews CES keynotes from Nvidia and AMD.
- Gene Munster remains long the broader AI trade, seeing two to three years left.
- He expects the Nasdaq to deliver roughly 10% annual returns driven by AI.
- AI-first companies should outperform as 2026 growth exceeds expectations.
- Deepwater owns Nvidia; Munster expects 65%+ revenue growth and demand outpacing supply.
- Google is a top 2026 pick, helped by Samsung doubling Gemini device shipments.
- Foxconn's December-quarter revenue beat is another sign of higher-for-longer AI demand.
- AMD and Samsung are mentioned mainly as supporting context, not independent calls.
Ideas
Still early in long AI trade
Gene Munster remains constructive on the broader AI trade, saying it is still early and likely has another two to three years to run. He expects AI-first companies to grow faster than consensus in calendar 2026, even though skepticism returned after recent Meta and Nvidia results, and he explicitly prefers to stay long AI.
Nasdaq can return 10% on AI
Munster forecasts that the Nasdaq can still perform at plus 10% annually for the next two to three years, largely driven by AI. The recent market skepticism after Meta and Nvidia results does not change his view that underlying company growth will exceed expectations in calendar 2026.
Foxconn beat signals stronger AI demand
Foxconn reported December-quarter revenue growth of 22% versus Street expectations of 13%, and as both a customer and manufacturing partner for Nvidia GPUs, that upside surprise is another sign that AI demand remains higher for longer. Munster calls the Foxconn news positive.
Own Nvidia on 65% growth
Deepwater owns Nvidia, and Munster expects Nvidia to grow revenue 65% or more this year versus Street expectations around 50%. He believes Jensen Huang will reiterate October guidance of $500 billion cumulative Blackwell and Rubin revenue through calendar 2026, excluding China and new bookings, and that demand remains so strong Nvidia essentially cannot keep up, making CES comments a positive catalyst.
Google top pick on Gemini expansion
Munster says Google should continue to be a big surprise in calendar 2026 and puts it at the top of his list, citing Samsung's plans to double Gemini device shipments as evidence that Google's AI distribution is expanding.
