Still believe we'll have a better-than-average year in 2026, says Carson Group's Ryan Detrick
Speakers
Ryan Detrick
— Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group
Steve Liesman
— Senior Economics Reporter
Summary
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, joins Squawk Box to discuss his 2026 outlook and says he still expects a better-than-average year for the S&P 500 with 12-15% gains. He argues earnings and profit margins are dual tailwinds, productivity is rebounding, and market breadth is improving beyond mega-cap tech. He likes Europe within developed international, is overweight equities, and points to high-yield and industrial-metals signals as supportive of a broadening global upcycle, though he remains slightly underweight small caps and expects fewer rate cuts than priced.
- Ryan Detrick forecasts 12-15% S&P 500 gains and a better-than-average year.
- He cites earnings, profit margins, and rebounding productivity as bullish tailwinds.
- High-yield credit and advance/decline breadth signal a broadening bull market.
- He favors overweight equities and a diversified portfolio beyond the Magnificent Seven.
- He likes Europe within developed international but is even weight developed international overall.
- He remains slightly underweight small caps despite recent Russell 2000 outperformance.
- He expects fewer Fed rate cuts than the market is pricing.
- Transports and regional banks are highlighted as breakout areas.
Ideas
Bullish S&P 500 for better-than-average year.
Ryan expects the S&P 500 to gain 12-15% this year and calls it a better-than-average year. He argues earnings and profit margins are dual tailwinds, productivity is rebounding (4.9% in Q3) to support economic upside while capping inflation, and high-yield and breadth signals show the bull market is broadening. He also says investors should not lose sleep over an overvalued market.
Global growth supports industrial metals.
He notes copper and industrial metals are higher and argues the global economy is on a little better footing. He also expects fewer rate cuts than the market is pricing, which supports his base case for industrial metals and global growth.
High yield breakout signals risk-on.
High yield was barely down during Tuesday's equity selloff, and high yield relative to Treasuries broke out to a multiyear high. He views this as a clue that credit conditions and the market are better under the surface, supporting a broadening bull market.
Like Europe within developed international.
Within developed international equities, where Carson is neutral overall, he specifically likes Europe, including small caps. He thinks the global economy is on better footing and small caps should do fine, although he remains slightly underweight small caps overall.
Stay overweight diversified equities broadly.
He remains overweight equities and favors a well-diversified portfolio rather than trying to pick one or two winning themes. He points to improving market breadth, with many areas participating beyond the Magnificent Seven, as a reason the bull market can continue.
Market broadening beyond mega-cap tech.
He highlights that transports recently hit all-time highs and regional banks broke out to multi-year highs, which he cites as evidence the bull market is broadening beyond just the seven largest stocks. He sees many positives still out there across the market.
