Intel Dives After Tepid Forecast, BOJ Holds Spurring Yen Volatility | The Opening Trade 1/23/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 23, 2026 at 12:10  |  1:36:03  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Naomi Fink — Chief Global Strategist, Amova Asset Management
Florian — Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager
Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg
Fabiana Fedeli — CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, M&G Investment Management
Neil Campling — Tech/TMT Analyst
Larry Fink — CEO, BlackRock
Brian Moynihan — CEO, Bank of America
Charles Capel — Reporter
Louise Moon — Reporter, Wall Street Journal
Mark Sedwill — Former U.K. National Security Advisor; Rothschild Political Advisory
Francine Lacqua — Anchor, Bloomberg
Anna Edwards — Anchor, Bloomberg TV (London)

Summary

The episode centered on the Bank of Japan holding rates at 0.75%, which left the yen volatile and raised intervention questions, while gold hovered near $5,000 and Intel plunged premarket on weak guidance tied to manufacturing yields. Guests debated diversification away from U.S. assets, with bullish cases for Japan, Europe/Asia, emerging markets, quality stocks, gold and European defense. In Europe, the CSG defense IPO surged in Amsterdam and SpaceX was reported to be preparing a mega-listing, while Davos geopolitics, French PMI weakness and credit-card regulation also featured.

  • BOJ held its policy rate at 0.75%; Ueda said the neutral rate is hard to pinpoint, and yen swings fueled intervention speculation.
  • Gold traded just below $5,000, supported by central-bank demand and geopolitical buying.
  • Intel shares dropped premarket after weak first-quarter revenue guidance and low manufacturing yields.
  • CSG, the Czech armored-vehicle and munitions maker, jumped sharply in its Amsterdam debut, the largest-ever pure-play defense IPO.
  • SpaceX was reported to have lined up banks for a listing as soon as this year at around a $1.5 trillion valuation.
  • European equities were mixed; French services PMI contracted sharply while manufacturing gauges beat expectations.
  • Davos geopolitics dominated headlines, with Ukraine talks resuming in the UAE and Greenland tensions receding.
  • Larry Fink said there is no AI bubble and highlighted the massive AI capex and infrastructure buildout.
Ideas
Naomi Fink Chief Global Strategist, Amova Asset Management 15:01
Carry trade faces neutral-rate risk
The yen carry trade is a policy- and investor-driven phenomenon: with the BOJ gradually withdrawing stimulus but rates still very accommodative, the environment still supports risk-taking, but once the BOJ reaches neutral there should be less risk-taking, which is not good for the carry trade - not tomorrow, but on the horizon.
Naomi Fink Chief Global Strategist, Amova Asset Management 15:42
Positive Japan beyond the weak yen
She remains positive on Japan on improving fundamentals - wage rises, corporate investment and capacity replenishment - rather than on currency dynamics, saying there are many reasons to be positive on Japan beyond a weaker yen.
Naomi Fink Chief Global Strategist, Amova Asset Management 17:33
JGB yields likely trending higher
Long-end JGB swings reflect the market returning to normal rather than a failure, fiscal discipline matters for market trust, and the trend in yields is still likely to be higher, implying continued pressure on Japanese government bond prices.
Florian Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager 33:52
Diversify beyond U.S. stocks regionally
U.S. political risk and the regionalization of the world economy are a structural change; portfolios were too concentrated in U.S. assets, so he would diversify - not hedge - away from that concentration, holding 'not only U.S. stocks' and using unhedged currency exposure, since bonds are typically hedged while equities are not.
Florian Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager 35:17
Swiss stocks a diversifying value play
Buying Swiss stocks is an interesting play right now because Swiss/value exposure is inherently very diversifying against geopolitical shocks.
Florian Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager 35:47
Japan equities: US inflation, EU policy
Japan combines U.S.-style inflation with European-style accommodative monetary policy, which underpins a nice earnings outlook for the equity market and also supports the currency - a key reason he is positive on Japanese equities.
Tom Mackenzie Anchor, Bloomberg 50:31
Buy defense dips from CSG listing
If the CSG listing has caused a portfolio-effect dip in European defense names, that dip could be an opening to buy the sector longer term, given Europe's determination to build up its defense space and Germany's increased fiscal spending.
Fabiana Fedeli CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, M&G Investment Management 51:30
Underweight US, favor Europe and Asia
M&G underweights the U.S. in favor of Europe and Asia, where there are more idiosyncratic stories and better valuations, as a rebalancing away from over-concentrated U.S. exposure rather than an abandonment of the U.S. and its innovative companies.
Fabiana Fedeli CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, M&G Investment Management 51:30
Underweight US, favor Europe and Asia
M&G underweights the U.S. in favor of Europe and Asia, where there are more idiosyncratic stories and better valuations, as a rebalancing away from over-concentrated U.S. exposure rather than an abandonment of the U.S. and its innovative companies.
Fabiana Fedeli CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, M&G Investment Management 52:16
Trade long bonds tactically, not safe haven
Long-dated developed-market government bonds are no longer the 'sleep well at night' safe haven because of fiscal-sustainability worries, but they remain valuable for tactically trading around yield moves and swings in sentiment.
Fabiana Fedeli CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, M&G Investment Management 52:58
Gold structurally bid by central banks
Gold is one of only two true safe havens now (besides diversification itself), with a structural story: central banks keep buying and large asset owners such as pension funds remain underweight, and many big central banks still hold single-digit gold allocations - though there is always a danger the move goes too far.
Fabiana Fedeli CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, M&G Investment Management 53:54
EM cheap with idiosyncratic opportunities
Emerging markets offer a lot of idiosyncratic opportunity and are cheaper than the U.S. - about 13 times forward earnings - which she calls an even more interesting trade if you look under the index level.
Fabiana Fedeli CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, M&G Investment Management 54:34
Buy left-behind global quality stocks
Money has crowded into technology and European defense names over the past year, leaving many quality stocks behind across emerging markets, Asia, Europe and the U.K.; consumer staples, specialty industrials, health care and telecom are areas where quality valuations do not reflect fundamentals.
Fabiana Fedeli CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, M&G Investment Management 58:07
European defense trend strong, be selective
The long-term trend for European defense is still very strong, but investors must be selective: there are long-cycle and short-cycle companies, and some names look richly valued relative to near-term outcomes.
Neil Campling Tech/TMT Analyst 64:11
Intel: hype versus years-behind reality
Intel's manufacturing and technology problems span years, not one quarter: the stock is up nearly 50% year to date on buy-America hopes, yet it is one-seventeenth Nvidia's market cap and years behind TSMC, and you cannot simply buy technology leadership - it is having another reality check.
Neil Campling Tech/TMT Analyst 65:38
SpaceX most watched mega-IPO
SpaceX is the most interesting of the big IPO candidates: Musk has taken it from concept to established leader in space technology, it recently commanded an $800 billion private valuation and the business has taken off, making it the most watched of the mega-listings.
Larry Fink CEO, BlackRock 87:48
No AI bubble, buy the buildout
There is no AI bubble: hundreds of billions of dollars of capex are needed to build out AI, that buildout should drive global growth and requires rebuilding grids and sourcing abundant cheap power, and BlackRock's expanded AI infrastructure venture with Microsoft, MGX, Nvidia and others sees 'nothing but opportunity' - though some big failures and rotation are inevitable.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 23, 2026, features Naomi Fink, Florian, Tom Mackenzie, Fabiana Fedeli, Neil Campling, Larry Fink discussing Yen Carry Trade, EWJ, Japanese government bonds, Non-U.S. equities, EWL, ITA, VGK, AAXJ, SPY, Long-dated developed-market government bonds, GLD, EEM, Global quality stocks, XLP, Specialty industrials, XLV, IYZ, INTC, SPCX, AIQ. 17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Naomi Fink, Florian, Tom Mackenzie, Fabiana Fedeli, Neil Campling, Larry Fink  · Tickers: Yen Carry Trade, EWJ, Japanese government bonds, Non-U.S. equities, EWL, ITA, VGK, AAXJ, SPY, Long-dated developed-market government bonds, GLD, EEM, Global quality stocks, XLP, Specialty industrials, XLV, IYZ, INTC, SPCX, AIQ