MacroVoices #530 Daniel Lacalle: China and The Us Will Decide The Outcome of The Iran War

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 30, 2026 at 17:23  |  1:14:02  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Daniel Lacalle — Chief Economist, Tressis

Summary

The Iran crisis dominates the episode with a focus on the oil spike, geopolitical staying power, and divergent impacts on the US, China, and Europe. Daniel Lacalle discusses secular inflation and Europe's vulnerability, while Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna present specific trades including a long oil position, a short S&P hedge, an avoidance of gold, and a pair trade favoring US over European financials. The overall message is that markets are underappreciating the lagged economic damage from the Strait of Hormuz closure.

  • Iran negotiations collapsed, sending crude oil above $110 WTI and $120 Brent.
  • Daniel Lacalle argues oil has likely peaked but geopolitical premium keeps prices elevated.
  • The US and China are positioned as shock absorbers; Europe and emerging markets face severe stress.
  • Secular inflation persists due to soaring money supply and policy-driven demand support.
  • Patrick Ceresna presents a long US financials (XLF) vs short European financials (EUFN) pair trade.
  • Patrick Ceresna is long WTI crude oil after buying the dip at $79, expecting continued upside.
  • Erik Townsend doubled his S&P 500 hedge, expecting a market decline similar to COVID lag.
  • Erik Townsend reduced his gold position, anticipating further downside before a resumption of the secular bull market.
Ideas
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 44:35
Long US financials, short European financials
European financials have materially outperformed US financials since early 2025 despite a more fragile macro backdrop. As the energy crisis transmits into margin pressure, credit deterioration, and second-order effects, European financials should begin to underperform. The trade pairs a long in US financials (XLF) against a short in European financials (EUFN) to capture the anticipated relative mean reversion.
XLF HIGH
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 44:35
Long US financials, short European financials
European financials have materially outperformed US financials since early 2025 despite a more fragile macro backdrop. As the energy crisis transmits into margin pressure, credit deterioration, and second-order effects, European financials should begin to underperform. The trade pairs a long in US financials (XLF) against a short in European financials (EUFN) to capture the anticipated relative mean reversion.
EUFN HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 50:40
Short S&P 500, expect decline
The market is in denial about the severity of the Iran crisis, similar to the lag in recognizing the COVID pandemic. As real economic disruptions from the oil spike become unavoidable, a major equity selloff is inevitable. He doubled down on his S&P 500 hedge position at 7200 to profit from the coming decline.
SPY HIGH
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 57:54
Long WTI crude oil, expect higher
Bought the dip in WTI crude oil at $79, expecting continued upside as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and real supply effects hit global refineries. The UAE leaving OPEC signals the end of spare capacity, further supporting prices. With no imminent deal, prices are likely to keep rising from current levels above $110.
WTI HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 64:00
Avoid gold, expect further downside
The oil price surge forces the Fed to lean hawkish, crushing gold. Gold has already sold off and he expects further downside to new lows below 4100, possibly below the 200-day moving average. He reduced his gold position by more than half to avoid the near-term drawdown while remaining long-term bullish.
GOLD HIGH
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This Macro Voices video, published April 30, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing XLF, EUFN, SPY, WTI, GOLD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend  · Tickers: XLF, EUFN, SPY, WTI, GOLD