Iran War Update: Trump isn't sure a deal can be reached

Summary

• US-Iran diplomacy at impasse: US reissued pre-war demands via a 15-point plan; Iran rejected, similar to pre-war response.
• Israel's war objective is victory to neutralize Iran's capacity to threaten the region, not merely a ceasefire.
• Iran sustaining revenue despite conflict: exporting oil to China and charging transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Domestic political risk for President Trump: rising oil prices from the war are causing significant political trouble.
• Iran's authoritarian resilience may allow it to endure more suffering than Western states, complicating negotiation leverage.
• Iranian attack frequency has dropped from ~75-80 per day initially to about 10-12 daily; reasons unclear (Israeli success or Iranian conservation).
• Regional shift: Emirates and Saudis, initially opposed to war, now favor ending it due to perceived Iranian threats.
• Military escalation likely: US ground troops expected to deploy soon, indicating prolonged conflict.
• Israel will likely follow US lead on war termination to maintain strong bilateral relations.
• Oil market volatility remains a key economic implication, tied to Strait of Hormuz security and Iranian export flows.