CUIDADO INVESTIDOR: 2026 PODE ACABAR COM SEUS INVESTIMENTOS

Summary

Paulo Abreu reviews a painful late-2024 market and a much better 2025 for investors who kept contributing, then turns to 2026. He sees Brazil facing a difficult year because of expected interest-rate cuts, election uncertainty, and unpredictable external factors, while noting that a cheap stock market alone is not enough. The discussion focuses on risk management: volatility is not risk, risk is stress, downside scenarios and position sizing matter, and positions should be stopped by thesis rather than price.

• Paulo Abreu reviews the 2024 market stress and the recovery and wealth build in 2025 for investors who kept contributing.
• For 2026, he expects a difficult year for Brazil, driven by an interest-rate cutting cycle and election uncertainty.
• He says external factors are unpredictable and Brazilian cycles can be shorter and more extreme.
• A cheap Brazilian stock market is not sufficient; the key question is whether the risk is adequately compensated.
• He defines risk as stress rather than volatility, emphasizing simultaneous downside and broken correlations.
• Position sizing and downside scenarios are the main controls for portfolio construction.
• Mantaro does not use price stops, instead exiting positions when the thesis is broken.
• The conversation is mostly a risk-management and macro-caution discussion rather than a specific stock recommendation.