Name: Powell probe, tariff ruling and Iran tensions rattle markets and policy decisions
Uploaded: 2026-01-12T12:38:28+00:00
Duration: 588 s

Speakers

Mark Malek — Chief Investment Officer, Siebert Financial

Henrietta Treyz — Political Analyst, Veda Partners

Dan Murphy — CNBC International Correspondent (Dubai)

Summary

The segment discusses how the Powell probe, a pending Supreme Court tariff ruling, Iran tensions, and rising defense spending are raising headline risk and volatility. Mark Malek sees near-term market volatility, higher bond yields, and defense as an attractive area. Henrietta Treyz outlines the fiscal and legislative risks, including tariff uncertainty, defense-driven deficits, and a possible government shutdown. Dan Murphy says Iran escalation risk is not yet reflected in oil prices.

Powell probe and political pressure raise headline risk.
Supreme Court tariff ruling seen as binary $3T event.
Iran tensions raise potential oil-flow and geopolitical-risk concerns.
Defense spending expectations increase fiscal deficit concerns.
Bond yields and rate-sensitive growth sectors are key market risks.
Mark Malek favors defense and expects volatility.
Henrietta Treyz warns of legislative logjam and shutdown risk.
Dan Murphy says oil pricing has not reflected Iran escalation risk.

Ideas

Mark Malek Chief Investment Officer, Siebert Financial 0:34

Headline risks push Treasury yields higher

Mark warns that headline risk, tariff uncertainty, defense spending, and deficits are driving longer-maturity bond yields higher. He says bond yields are critical because growth sectors have become very sensitive to rates, and he agrees the bond market faces bigger challenges from the deficit.

Mark Malek Chief Investment Officer, Siebert Financial 0:39

Complacency points to rising volatility

Mark views markets as complacent with the VIX below 15 while headline risk from the Powell probe, tariffs, Iran, and rising yields builds. He expects near-term volatility across all sectors, though volatility can work both ways and may eventually create buying opportunities if the headlines resolve as noise.

Mark Malek Chief Investment Officer, Siebert Financial 2:21

Geopolitics and spending favor defense

Mark favors defense as a key investment area because recent geopolitical actions in Venezuela and Iran, plus the administration's focus on defense spending, create a clear defense investment theme. He still expects near-term volatility across sectors and notes deficit challenges, but says the defense sector is one area to look at.

Dan Murphy CNBC International Correspondent (Dubai) 5:55

Iran risk not priced in oil

Dan says the Iran escalation risk is real and any U.S. military action or new sanctions could disrupt oil flows or raise the geopolitical risk premium in crude. He notes oil pricing is not reflecting that risk yet, leaving a clear monitorable upside setup.

Henrietta Treyz Political Analyst, Veda Partners 7:47

Defense spending keeps rising

Henrietta says her long-standing view is that defense spending and federal spending will continue to rise. She notes the White House's defense request is about 50% larger than last year and that higher defense spending requires matching non-defense outlays, supporting defense but widening the deficit.

Henrietta Treyz Political Analyst, Veda Partners 8:11

Deficits pressure bond market outlook

Henrietta argues the defense-spending increase will force matching domestic non-defense spending, widening the deficit and creating a critical setup for bond markets into 2026, especially with a possible January 30 government shutdown. She flags fiscal pressure on Treasuries without explicitly calling for a short.

Powell probe, tariff ruling and Iran tensions rattle markets and policy decisions

Summary

Ideas

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