Name: Can Rate Cuts Save Crypto’s Bull Market?
Uploaded: 2025-08-25T22:30:56+00:00
Duration: 3079 s

Speakers

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

The hosts debate whether crypto's bull market can continue after a sharp post-Jackson Hole rally and pullback. They see rate cuts and a constructive macro backdrop as supportive for Bitcoin, equities, and risk assets, though they flag tactical caution near current ETH and BTC levels. They also discuss DAT structures, criticize Solana's branding and Solana DAT exit-liquidity risks, and review Helium/DePIN failures and Hyperliquid's token model.

Hosts debate whether crypto has topped or has another leg higher after Jackson Hole.
Rate cuts and a constructive macro outlook are framed as bullish for Bitcoin, equities, and risk assets.
Jonah outlines ETH and BTC buy levels while staying cautious at current prices.
Solana is criticized for memecoin branding and DAT exit-liquidity risks; a $250 pump is called a potential short.
Helium/DePIN is discussed as a failed token model, with Hyperliquid praised as a better revenue-buyback model.
DATs are debated as scammy, creative, or regulatory arbitrage.
Macro topics include Ukraine war energy implications and Trump policy expectations.

Ideas

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 0:00

Rate cuts fuel Bitcoin and risk assets.

Avi argues Jackson Hole marked a policy shift toward rate cuts and that the Fed is already behind the curve. Lower rates make non-yielding Bitcoin more attractive and should pull trillions out of T-bills into Bitcoin, SPY, and other risk assets. Despite frothy top signals, he wants to ride volatility and sell higher rather than get cute.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 5:14

ETH no-man's land; rebuy near $4,100.

After ETH's sharp rejection from the $5,000 area and a 5% hourly down candle, Jonah sees heavy overhead supply. At $4,525 ETH is no-man's land; he is not buying here and would rather rebuy around $4,100 while waiting for stabilization.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 5:31

Bitcoin dip buy zone $102k-$108k.

Jonah says Bitcoin momentum has slowed and price is in the middle of nowhere. He does not think a 25-30% drawdown is likely now, so he would be a buyer between roughly $102,000 and $108,000 while looking for stabilization.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 13:16

Macro pullback resets equity uptrend.

Jonah views the macro backdrop as supportive and believes events like Jackson Hole reset the starting line for an ongoing equity uptrend. The initial move pulled forward too much excitement and may need a small pullback, but he expects equities to resume going up and to the right, naming NASDAQ and S&P 500.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 19:21

Ukraine war end crashes energy prices.

Avi thinks the end of the Ukraine war is underpriced. If it happens, energy prices should crash, sharply reducing inflation and forcing the Fed to cut quickly; he frames energy as the clean short and the broader shock as bullish for risk assets.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 32:43

Avi still loves MicroStrategy and Saylor.

During the DAT discussion, Avi says he still loves MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor, praising Saylor as very good at his job. He does not abandon MSTR despite broader DAT skepticism.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 35:13

Solana at $250 is great short.

Jonah says Solana has disappointed him by pigeonholing itself as the memecoin chain and losing the PR war to Base, now a formidable and equally fast competitor. He thinks DATs using locked Solana as exit liquidity are scammy, and if SOL is pumped to around $250 it will be the short of the century.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 38:34

Helium token failed; avoid.

Avi was a Helium believer but now sees it as a failed DePIN example: Helium kept printing tokens to reward miners, never implemented promised token value accrual, and the token went to zero even as the network expanded. He prefers to avoid it.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 41:14

Hyperliquid tokenomics works via revenue buybacks.

Avi cites Hyperliquid as the model that worked: a massive airdrop, token treated like equity, and platform revenues used to buy back the token. Because exchanges scale quickly and revenue arrived early, Hyperliquid pulled off the token-bootstrapping idea that Helium failed at.

Can Rate Cuts Save Crypto’s Bull Market?

Summary

Ideas

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