Rick Rieder: Market will have a pretty good year but not in a straight line

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 25, 2026 at 02:02  |  5:20  |  CNBC
Speakers

Summary

  • Rick Rieder forecasts the US economy will grow "well above 5% nominal" this year, driving a "pretty good year" for the stock market, though volatility will persist ("not in a straight line").
  • BlackRock has "adjusted positioning" on Hyperscalers, acknowledging a shift in market narrative from blind faith in Capex to a "show me" demand for revenue/ROI. However, Rieder remains fundamentally positive on the group due to immense free cash flow and buybacks.
  • A significant warning is issued regarding the "Content" and Media sectors: AI is forcing a re-evaluation of content creation models, and Rieder predicts "big market caps can shrink significantly" in this space.
Trade Ideas
Rick Rieder CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock 4:02
Rieder notes that while BlackRock has "adjusted some of our positioning," he explicitly states, "I still like the hyperscalers quite a bit." He highlights their "incredible" top-line revenue and free cash flow conversion. Despite the market's anxiety over AI Capex, Rieder argues that Capex is simply "future ROI." Furthermore, he points to a massive "technical condition": these companies have such immense buyback programs that they create a "backbone of buying" during pressure periods. Long. The fundamental cash flow and buyback support outweigh the near-term "show me" anxiety regarding AI spending. Failure to demonstrate durability of business models or sufficient IRR on the massive capital expenditures.
SKYY
Rick Rieder CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock
Rieder warns of a "reevaluation of content, how do you create content?" and states, "I think this is when you talk about big market caps that can shrink significantly." The rise of AI is fundamentally disrupting the business models of legacy content creators. If AI lowers the barrier to entry or automates creation, the premium valuations ("big market caps") of traditional media/content firms are at risk of permanent contraction. Avoid or Short sectors reliant on traditional content creation moats. AI regulation protecting copyright holders could preserve legacy value.
XLC
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This CNBC video, published February 25, 2026, features Rick Rieder discussing SKYY, XLC. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Rick Rieder  · Tickers: SKYY, XLC