The Important Thing Is the Unbroken 'Shortage'... Semiconductors, Now the Real 'Profit' Section | Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Research Center, Unistory Asset Management

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol dissects a bullish CLSA report arguing that the AI semiconductor token shortage will persist until 2028–2029, extending the memory upcycle far beyond current consensus. He applies this thesis to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, presenting tactical buy levels based on a 0.7x consensus target safety margin. The discussion also covers TSMC’s capex upgrade, HBM supply tightness, and potential sector rotation into Korean securities stocks.

• CLSA report projects token-driven AI semiconductor shortage lasting until at least 2028–2029, extending the supply-demand imbalance for memory and foundry.
• TSMC capex upgraded by 15–20% as a direct response to AI token demand, reinforcing the bullish foundry thesis.
• HBM demand expected to exceed supply by 25–50% through 2026–2028, benefiting major suppliers SK Hynix and Samsung.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are trading near 0.7x consensus target prices, providing historically attractive entry points with upside from potential target upgrades.
• If the 2028 shortage scenario becomes consensus, current valuations could expand significantly, driving further stock price gains.
• A brief sector rotation call suggests Korean securities stocks may attract funds during semiconductor consolidation phases.
• National Pension rebalancing rules create tactical KOSPI buy/sell zones, with potential net buying below 8,400 and selling above 9,000.
• The speaker also notes a long-term structural shift: retail investors’ concentrated approach may eventually influence institutional portfolio norms.