Is the Bull Market Over? Post-War Oil Prices Hit Record Highs... 'Inflation' Fear Stirring Again | Jang Woojin, CEO of Geumsigong

Summary

In this Yeouido Insight episode, Jang Woojin, CEO of Geumsigong, reviewed the April 30 market and warned that the liquidity-driven rally is intact but H2 liquidity may tighten. He flagged oil, fertilizer-driven crop costs, and chemical shortages as inflation risks, and commercial real estate and private credit as credit risks. He also discussed Samsung's strong memory margins, Google's AI-enhanced search pressure on Naver, and Nvidia's physical-AI push as a positive for Korean hardware.

• Jang Woojin said the major bull market is not over, but liquidity indicators warrant caution and higher cash.
• Oil is rising on physical supply shortage, not only war risk, and is a key inflation driver.
• Fertilizer costs are lifting soybean and corn prices, with possible H2 food inflation.
• Naphtha and chemical product shortages are adding to goods inflation.
• Commercial real estate and private credit remain credit-risk watch items.
• The Fed is boxed in by inflation, so rate-cut expectations and long Treasuries are unattractive.
• Samsung's NAND/DRAM margins support a Q2 earnings surprise; Google's Gemini search is pressuring Naver.
• Nvidia's physical-AI platform push benefits Korean robotics and hardware themes.