Don't Be Fooled by Fear... The Semiconductor Stock Bull Market Continues, 'Powell Cannot Stop Big Tech's $650 Billion Investment' | Kiwoom Securities Researcher Han Jiyoung

Don't Be Fooled by Fear... The Semiconductor Stock Bull Market Continues "Powell Can't Stop Big Tech's $650 Billion Investment" | Kiwoom Securities Researcher Han Jiyoung
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 30, 2026 at 08:30  |  26:56  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Han Ji-young — Researcher
Park Geun-hyung — Director

Summary

Han Jiyoung of Kiwoom Securities and host Park Geun-hyung discuss OpenAI's internal issues, UAE's OPEC exit, FOMC and rate thresholds, Big Tech earnings, memory semiconductors, and AI power infrastructure. Han argues OpenAI's problems are company-specific and AI demand remains strong, while UAE's OPEC exit is medium-term bearish for oil. She favors US Big Tech, Nasdaq, S&P 500, Korean semiconductors, and AI infrastructure, and watches Korean steel/pipe and defense, while flagging Meta as less attractive and Amazon's FCF risk as already reflected.

  • OpenAI target misses are seen as competition from Claude and Gemini, not an AI industry slowdown.
  • UAE's OPEC exit is a medium-term oil downside factor, though Hormuz disruption delays the impact.
  • Middle East rearmament supports global defense orders and Korean defense earnings expectations.
  • Rate discussion focuses on the 4.8-5.0% US 10-year yield threshold and anchored inflation expectations.
  • Big Tech earnings were strong; Meta's cost-driven capex makes it less attractive than other hyperscalers.
  • Hyperscaler capex guidance of $660-680B supports Korean semiconductor and memory stocks.
  • AI infrastructure demand is broadening into data center power, transformers, and fuel cells.
  • Amazon's FCF concern is already reflected, with AWS growth offering upside.
Ideas
Han Ji-young Researcher 2:33
AI demand strong despite OpenAI noise
OpenAI's revenue and user target misses reflect competitive pressure from Claude and Gemini, especially in B2B, and users switching between models rather than an AI industry-wide slowdown. Computing-power shortages and continued user growth show AI demand is abundant, so the market is treating OpenAI's issue as a company-specific tempest in a teapot.
AI-SECTOR HIGH
Han Ji-young Researcher 6:20
Oil medium-term downside from OPEC exit
UAE's OPEC exit removes a constraint on its production and could lead to broader quota cheating or a 2014-style production war involving Saudi Arabia, other OPEC members, and the U.S. Although Hormuz disruption is delaying the impact and keeping oil prices high, the event is medium-term bearish for crude and lowers the post-conflict high-oil equilibrium, which could also help the Fed view inflation more positively.
WTI HIGH
Han Ji-young Researcher 9:27
Watch Korean steel pipe on clarity
UAE's planned acceleration of energy infrastructure investment could bring new orders for energy storage and production facilities, benefiting Korean steel pipe and steel makers. The sector has not moved because investors are waiting for clarity on the Strait of Hormuz; the setup becomes more actionable once that uncertainty clears.
Korean steel and steel pipe sector MED
Han Ji-young Researcher 10:31
Korean defense earnings to rise
Iran's attacks across the Middle East are prompting regional countries to rearm and rethink self-defense, while the old OPEC-centered collective military strategy is giving way to each country fending for itself. That should increase global defense orders and raise earnings expectations for Korean defense companies.
Korean defense sector MED
Han Ji-young Researcher 11:29
US yields unlikely to hit five percent
The critical threshold for growth-stock valuation damage is a US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.8-5.0%, not 4.5%. Han sees the probability of reaching that level as low because long-term inflation expectations remain anchored around 3%, unlike 2022, but if inflation expectations rise, the 10-year yield could reach 5% and growth stocks would require caution.
US10Y MED
Han Ji-young Researcher 15:21
Avoid Meta on cost-driven capex
Meta's capex increase was driven by a surge in costs and was effectively unavoidable, unlike Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, whose capex raises respond to demand and are funded by strong core businesses. The market is pricing profitability concerns for Meta, making it the less attractive hyperscaler.
META MED
Han Ji-young Researcher 16:32
Hold Korean semiconductors on capex, memory support
Big Tech's 2026 capex guidance has been raised from about $650B to $660-680B, which supports continued demand for Korean semiconductor stocks. Although spot memory prices are stalling, contract prices are expected to rise in Q2, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are raising memory prices, and long-term agreements should reduce cyclical amplitude; peak-out fears can be revisited after the Q2 earnings season, and downside for Korean AI semiconductor value-chain stocks is better protected.
005930.KS 000660.KS HIGH
Han Ji-young Researcher 17:07
Big Tech and US indices higher
After the October-to-March correction, AI big tech valuations have compressed and bubble concerns are largely reflected, with forward P/E levels back near 2022 and 2002 troughs. Earnings were excellent and momentum can continue through Q2/Q3, so Han favors US platform/AI big tech and sees Nasdaq and S&P 500 upside.
NASDAQ Composite SPY US Big Tech HIGH
Han Ji-young Researcher 20:43
Amazon FCF upside via AWS growth
The market already reflected Amazon's negative free-cash-flow risk after January earnings season. AWS, helped by Claude-related B2B demand, is accelerating revenue growth, which could turn free cash flow positive again, so the FCF debate has more upside optionality than downside risk.
AMZN MED
Han Ji-young Researcher 25:50
AI infrastructure demand broadens beyond chips
AI leadership is not shifting to a new sector but expanding within the AI value chain from front-end memory and chip designers to rear-end infrastructure. Data center power, transformer, and fuel cell demand should keep growing as long as AI demand remains intact; Bloom Energy's earnings are evidence of this broadening.
AIQ Data center power infrastructure Transformer sector Fuel cell sector MED
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This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published April 30, 2026, features Han Ji-young discussing AI-SECTOR, WTI, Korean steel and steel pipe sector, Korean defense sector, US10Y, META, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, NASDAQ Composite, SPY, US Big Tech, AMZN, AIQ, Data center power infrastructure, Transformer sector, Fuel cell sector. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Han Ji-young  · Tickers: AI-SECTOR, WTI, Korean steel and steel pipe sector, Korean defense sector, US10Y, META, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, NASDAQ Composite, SPY, US Big Tech, AMZN, AIQ, Data center power infrastructure, Transformer sector, Fuel cell sector