Truce Prospects Lift Stocks | The Close 3/25/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Mona Mahajan (Edward Jones) sees the market broadening trend temporarily stalled by the Iran conflict but expects it to resume, favoring sectors like industrials and consumer discretionary, and emerging markets as an alternative to US tech. Her base case expects contained oil prices ($70-80 WTI) supporting earnings growth.
- Alap Shah (Lotus) warns of structural, AI-driven labor displacement that monetary policy can't solve, advocating for a new tax framework targeting companies that displace workers. He sees political consensus building around this issue over the next 12-18 months.
- David Bellinger (Mizuho) is bullish on Chewy (CHWY), citing an 8-9% revenue growth model with potential for 30% profit growth, driven by subscription services, fresh food offerings, and a defensible customer relationship against Amazon/Walmart.
- Dave Ernsberger (S&P Global Energy) argues the full impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure won't be felt globally until ~April 10 due to shipping lags, describing a multi-phase shock. He notes US crude is in "hurry-up mode" to meet demand.
- Veronica Willis (Wells Fargo) believes the economy and earnings can handle elevated oil volatility, viewing any inflation spike as containable. She sees AI as a secular growth driver that will lift multiple sectors, not just tech.
- Mark McCormick (BMO) remains long the US Dollar as the "only high-quality hedge," citing its correlation with rates, superior US growth signals, and its role in funding a global liquidity crunch for dollar-denominated oil.
- Mitchell Caplan (Willow Wealth) frames the private credit liquidity issue as a failure of investor education and expectation-setting, not a fundamental credit problem, drawing parallels to the early days of options trading.
- Pleasant/Rock co-founders outline a strategy targeting real estate development in New Jersey communities, with a focus on public-private partnerships and involving athlete-investors, aiming to raise up to $500 million.
Trade Ideas
Speaker explicitly stated, "We like sectors like industrials which will benefit from a global expansion if that plays out." A resolution to the Iran conflict would support a global economic expansion. Industrials are a cyclical sector that typically performs well during periods of broad-based economic growth. LONG because the sector is positioned as a direct beneficiary of the anticipated resumption of a global growth cycle. The geopolitical conflict does not de-escalate, preventing the anticipated global expansion.
Speaker explicitly stated she likes consumer discretionary, which "could benefit over time as oil prices decline." Lower oil prices would increase real household income and boost consumer spending power. Consumer discretionary companies see higher demand when consumers have more disposable income. LONG as the sector is a direct play on the expected mean reversion of elevated oil prices, which is a core part of the speaker's base case. Oil prices remain elevated or rise further, squeezing consumer budgets.
Speaker was explicitly bullish, stating Chewy's business is "going from good to great" with an 8-9% revenue growth model and potential for 30% profitability growth. Chewy's growth is driven by subscription services (like Autoship), expansion into new categories (fresh dog food), and a sticky, trust-based customer relationship that defends against Amazon/Walmart. AI is seen as a tool for cost savings. LONG due to a combination of strong top-line growth, multiple profit levers, and a durable competitive moat in the pet care category. Intensifying competition from Amazon and Walmart erodes market share and pricing power.
Speaker stated the true impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure "will not be felt around the world until April 10" due to 40-day shipping lags, creating a "delayed effect" and "multiphase event." Physical markets are tight now, but futures markets will react later as the pipeline of crude from the Middle East runs empty for key Asian importers. This suggests a second wave of price pressure and volatility is imminent. WATCH because the market is in a volatile, multi-stage shock where the full supply/demand dislocation is not yet priced in, representing a critical near-term risk. A swift diplomatic resolution and reopening of the Strait occurs before the delayed impact materializes.
Speaker explicitly said "stay long the Greenback," calling the USD "the only high-quality hedge." The US has stronger growth indicators than Europe/Asia, offers high-quality carry, and is more insulated from the energy shock. The dollar is also needed to fund a global liquidity crunch for dollar-priced oil. LONG as the USD combines defensive hedging properties with positive carry and relative economic strength in a risky macro environment. The Fed turns decisively dovish while other central banks hike, undermining the rate and growth differentials.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 25, 2026, features Mona Mahajan, David Bellinger, Dave Ernsberger, Mark McCormick discussing XLI, XLY, CHWY, XLE, USD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mona Mahajan, David Bellinger, Dave Ernsberger, Mark McCormick · Tickers: XLI, XLY, CHWY, XLE, USD