Ideas
More Fed hikes likely, short Treasuries.
The Fed is under enormous pressure to deliver a 25bp hike because cumulative inflation has hurt living standards and is now a political-economy issue, not just a technocratic one. He thinks it would be unusual for the hike to be one-and-done and expects another increase before year-end, which supports higher front-end yields and pressure on front-end Treasuries.
AI data center capex risks underpriced.
He warns that the AI capex boom is growing on a multiplicative path that historically implies instability, while credit and equity risk premia have fallen rather than risen. A slowdown is more likely than not: data-center lease backlog is about $2.5T but only about 15% economic margin after build costs, and project finance relies on sponsor credit quality in a way reminiscent of 2005-07.
Trimming AI stocks after outperformance.
She sees a growth scare and slowdown in AI after significant outperformance and says AI stocks are due for profit taking; she has been trimming exposure. She still expects AI to be a major growth pillar, but less so in the near term.
Buy duration as yields back up.
With yields having backed up to around 5%, she is a buyer and likes the opportunity to add duration exposure in fixed income portfolios to lock in attractive yields. She compares the setup to the 2023 yield backup and views the higher income as good news.
Watch rotation from semis to IGV.
Her base case is that other sectors of the economy pick up as AI growth slows, and she points to a rotation where the semiconductor index sold off while IGV rose. She thinks that kind of rotation may continue, making software and tech-adjacent exposure a watch item.
Alex Chi
Deputy CIO of Global Credit and Head of Direct Lending, Carlyle
30:43
Private credit offers attractive deployment opportunities.
Private credit is holding up despite macro and geopolitical volatility; defaults are up but within cycle averages, and disciplined underwriting matters. Because the asset class is mostly floating-rate and borrowers are less levered, higher rates are not a demand problem. The coming maturity wall and M&A financing needs create opportunities to deploy in opportunistic credit, traditional direct lending, and hybrid capital at attractive economics; hybrid capital also diversifies away from traditional corporate credit and gives exposure to the real economy.
Private equity opportunity set remains strong.
He describes a private equity fundraising super cycle and says the investment environment is exactly where Carlyle wants it. The firm constructs portfolios to perform through the cycle, returns capital better than industry averages in the U.S., and should benefit as higher rates create a new opportunity set for private capital.
Favor defense and industrials hard assets.
The most attractive private-equity opportunities are in old-economy hard assets such as industrials and defense, driven by industrial policy, national security priorities, and supply-chain resiliency. These areas are top of mind for investors and Carlyle sees opportunity, though it keeps disciplined diversification rather than over-allocating.
AI value chain beyond data centers.
He is positive on AI as a transformative force that will create a new opportunity set for private capital, but stresses that the AI value chain is much broader than data centers. He sees implementation risks and safeguards as part of the process, not a reason to avoid the broader opportunity.
Long Treasuries need stability before buying.
The 10-year near 5% is a major round-number resistance area and part of a global rejection of long-term sovereign debt. He says long Treasuries offer value but are still a falling knife, and he is not a buyer until the market shows stability and support; a long bond near 6% would signal more indigestion. This is a watch setup rather than a long call.
Front-end Treasuries attractive versus cash.
The front end of the Treasury curve is extremely attractive because investors can pick up roughly 150bp over cash in two-year Treasuries without having to worry much about Fed hikes, and they can reinvest incoming cash. He says the front end remains extremely attractive.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 15, 2026,
features Jason Thomas, Nimrit Kang, Alex Chi, John Redett, Jeffrey Sherman
discussing SHY, AI Data Centers, AIQ, TLT, IGV, BIZD, Opportunistic Credit, Hybrid capital, PSP, ITA, XLI, AI value chain.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Jason Thomas,
Nimrit Kang,
Alex Chi,
John Redett,
Jeffrey Sherman
· Tickers:
SHY,
AI Data Centers,
AIQ,
TLT,
IGV,
BIZD,
Opportunistic Credit,
Hybrid capital,
PSP,
ITA,
XLI,
AI value chain
