Samsung Electronics, SK hynix: 'Q1 Earnings Will Be Tremendous'; DRAM Prices Also Soared in January | Noh Geun-chang, Head of Research Center

Summary

Noh Geun-chang, head of the Hyundai Motor Securities research center, discusses the memory semiconductor cycle after Samsung Electronics and SK hynix reported earnings. He argues that first-quarter DRAM and NAND prices are rising at unprecedented levels, supply remains tight, and AI data-center demand is price-insensitive, while Samsung is positioned to recover in HBM4 and SK hynix should keep strong HBM leadership and margins. He also says investors should watch first-quarter earnings because the market may underestimate the margin impact, though second-half price growth could slow.

• SK hynix operating profit surpassed Samsung Electronics as HBM mix and Samsung foundry losses drove the gap.
• Q4 DRAM ASP growth was stronger for Samsung, while NAND price growth was stronger for SK hynix.
• Q1 memory prices are rising roughly 70-90% across segments, which the speaker calls unprecedented.
• AI data-center demand is price-insensitive and memory supply remains tight, with no glut expected this year.
• Samsung is expected to ship HBM4 first and benefit from AMD's reliance on Samsung HBM.
• SK hynix is expected to maintain HBM leadership and sustain high-50% to 60% operating margins.
• SK hynix's buyback and cancellation is seen as improving shareholder returns.
• The speaker advises watching Q1 earnings for potential positive surprise despite slowing H2 price growth.