Ideas
Wait for AI pretender short setup.
The tech sector, especially anything claiming to be AI or AI-adjacent, is fertile shorting ground because so much money has flowed in and there will be many pretenders; quantum computing is an adjacent example with ridiculous price moves and many public stocks likely pretenders or premature. But shorting now is dangerous because these are strong momentum stocks and the timing is not right; he prefers to wait until a wave of speculative IPOs/SPACs overwhelms demand and the stocks are clearly sliding.
Semis are cyclical; expect mean reversion.
Semiconductors are generally not a great business model because they are highly cyclical and capex-intensive. He finds the strong upward move odd and expects some mean reversion; supply-chain bottlenecks do not make these businesses more attractive long term.
AppLovin short on adtech cheating.
Muddy Waters published a short on AppLovin focused on its purported adtech AI story: it allegedly cheats by violating major platforms' terms of service and possibly state, federal and EU laws, so there is no moat and the edge could erode if platforms enforce rules. He was not attacking the core gaming business but the blue-sky AI narrative; despite the stock ripping in a frothy momentum market, he expects the issues eventually matter.
S&P 500 momentum strategy outperforms.
Muddy Waters runs a quantitative momentum strategy that goes long the 20 highest-momentum S&P 500 constituents and rebalances monthly. He says it was up about 70% gross last year, is far easier than activist shorting, has backtested positively even in 2022, and can act as a leading indicator of rotations; flows and momentum dominate fundamentals.
Oklo long on AI power speculation.
He chose Oklo as his long in the Robin Hood contest even though he does not believe small modular reactor designs are near becoming real businesses. The edge was that AI/data-center power demand plus speculative excess made it a bad idea to short and a good momentum/speculation long; it worked for most of the contest.
Mining offers edge from capital underallocation.
He is long mining/junior mining because there has been a significant underallocation of human and financial capital to the sector since around 2000, leaving many good deposits run by bad operators. Junior mining offers venture-capital-like returns with more data and analytical edge, and the complexity rewards deep research. Muddy Waters launched a long-short resources fund, run net long.
Mayfair Gold is concentrated activist holding.
Mayfair Gold is a highly concentrated long position in the resource fund; Muddy Waters ran alongside an activist campaign, Carson sits on the board, and the company just obtained a US listing under ticker MINE. It reflects the mining strategy's edge and Darren Milan's resource expertise.
Snowline Gold is a takeover target.
Snowline Gold is a core holding and public long pitch: it is in Yukon, Canada, a first-world jurisdiction with rule of law and nearby infrastructure; it has abundant near-surface mineralization that supports a low-cost open-pit mine and early cash flow, making the NPV work despite remote location. He believes it is the most compelling significant greenfield gold deposit for a major and will be acquired at 2x+ current price even if gold falls, because major miners have depleted reserves, underinvested in greenfield exploration, and must acquire.
Vietnam gains from redirected FDI flows.
Vietnam is a long-term positive because it is non-aligned in Cold War 2.0 and can play the US and China off each other, attracting FDI redirected from China. It is a premier export-oriented manufacturing destination moving up the value chain with favorable demographics; the prior government's decision paralysis hurt performance, but the political environment has improved and the macro thesis remains intact.
India offers growth and research edge.
India is a long-term positive: it is non-aligned and benefits from the same shifts as Vietnam, but is larger, more dynamic, and has a strong consumer growth story. Deep research edge exists because fewer investors cover it well. He is positive despite crazy valuations; he is watching the impact of large language models on India's software outsourcing/BPO and consumer demand.
Hong Kong market rife with fraud.
Hong Kong is effectively a cesspit with so many frauds and scams that you should assume almost every stock has at least a little problem. Manipulators pump market caps above index thresholds to force passive funds to buy, then stocks halt/crash; the market is not real by Western standards, so it is dangerous to own.
US-listed Chinese microcaps are pump-and-dumps.
US-listed Chinese microcap pump-and-dumps are dangerous and should be avoided; if investors fall for them today they likely knew it was a pump-and-dump and hoped to get out early. The exchanges, lawyers, and PR firms facilitate them, and caveat emptor applies.
China A-shares cleaner for Chinese exposure.
Within China exposure, he has long assumed mainland A-shares are the cleanest place to buy a Chinese company: businesses are more basic and harder to fake, easier to diligence, better understood locally, and wrongdoers face severe consequences, unlike offshore listings where fraud incentives are asymmetric.
This Monetary Matters video, published February 04, 2026,
features Carson Block
discussing AI-SECTOR, QTUM, SMH, APP, S&P 500 momentum strategy (long top 20, monthly rebalance), OKLO, Junior mining stocks, GDX, MINE, SAU.V, VNM, India Equities, EWH, US-listed Chinese microcaps, ASHR.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Carson Block
· Tickers:
AI-SECTOR,
QTUM,
SMH,
APP,
S&P 500 momentum strategy (long top 20, monthly rebalance),
OKLO,
Junior mining stocks,
GDX,
MINE,
SAU.V,
VNM,
India Equities,
EWH,
US-listed Chinese microcaps,
ASHR
