Market Rout Deepens as US, Iran Signal Potential Escalation | Insight with Haslinda Amin 03/23/2026
Speakers
Christopher Ganis -- CIO, Indonesian Investment Authority
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Global risk assets are selling off as the Iran war enters its fourth week with escalating rhetoric; the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical choke point, with Iran threatening complete closure if attacked.
- The energy shock is described as the biggest since the 1970s, combining oil and gas disruptions, with over 50 regional energy infrastructure sites already targeted.
- Private banking clients are moving to the sidelines, not necessarily to cash, but transaction activity is slowing; there is little appetite for "buying the dip" amid high uncertainty.
- Markets are seen as underestimating the war's duration and economic damage; the "offramp" for the conflict is unclear, and a prolonged war would lead to significant damage.
- India is a focal point of vulnerability: it imports 90% of its oil, the rupee is at a multi-year low, foreign investors are selling equities, and market volatility gauges are elevated.
- The U.S. dollar is identified as the only effective haven asset in this specific energy-driven crisis, as rising yields undermine traditional havens like Treasuries and gold.
- Fortescue Metals CEO details the massive impact of oil prices on global mining costs, noting every $0.10 change impacts the industry by ~$0.5B, highlighting a strategic push to eliminate diesel use.
- Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has launched a generic semaglutide injection in India at $14/month, targeting a domestic market estimated to reach ~$1B, with plans for expansion in other emerging markets post-patent expiry.
- Central banks are facing a dilemma: the oil shock pressures inflation expectations, but the enduring link to core inflation is weak; the bond market is reacting more to real yield/debt sustainability fears than inflation breakevens.
- Private credit in Asia is viewed as less systemic and more need-based than in developed markets, with contained default risks and different liquidity dynamics.
Trade Ideas
Speaker states gold "should never be a haven" in this specific Middle East energy crisis, as the major geopolitical risk event (a regional war) has already occurred, and rising real yields are a marginal negative. The primary shock is inflationary (energy), which pushes bond yields higher, undermining gold's appeal. The geopolitical risk premium is already embedded from the initial invasion; further escalation would require catastrophic scenarios. Gold is not expected to perform its traditional safe-haven role in this environment, offering poor risk/reward. An unprecedented, multi-nuclear escalation of the conflict triggers a panic flight to all hard assets.
Speaker states the U.S. dollar is "the only haven in such a crisis," a view formulated before the conflict and now playing out as expected. An inflationary oil shock emanating from the Middle East drives up global yields, making yield-sensitive havens like Treasuries unattractive. The dollar benefits from its status as the primary global liquidity haven during energy-driven turmoil. The dollar is the preferred and expected safe-haven asset, likely to strengthen while other traditional havens falter. A sudden and credible diplomatic resolution to the war collapses the energy risk premium.
CEO confirms launch of generic semaglutide in India at ~$14/month, holds first regulatory approval, and expects the Indian market to reach ~$1 billion. The company has filed for approvals in Canada, Brazil, Turkey, and other emerging markets. Patent expiry for GLP-1 drugs opens a vast, underpenetrated market in diabetes and obesity. Dr. Reddy's is an early mover with a fully integrated supply chain, a partnered ecosystem for patient support/nutrition, and a strategy to generate local clinical evidence. First-mover status in a high-growth generic segment, combined with a planned multi-country rollout, positions the company for significant new revenue streams. Intense price competition from other Indian generics erodes margins; regulatory delays in key export markets.
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