The Real Drivers of GLP-1 Growth

Summary

Terence Flynn discusses the growth drivers and market potential for GLP-1 therapies, highlighting five key factors that could push adoption and lead to a $190 billion market. He notes that current penetration remains low, indicating a long growth runway, and that the ripple effects of GLP-1 adoption could extend to other industries such as food and retail.

• GLP-1 therapies are at a convergence moment of innovation, policy, and patient demand.
• Five drivers: shift to oral medications, Medicare access, lower costs and insurance coverage, global expansion, and innovation beyond weight loss.
• Market potential: $190 billion by 2035 with a bull case of $240 billion.
• Current penetration is low: 6% in US and 2% outside US.
• Oral GLP-1 users are 80% new to the category, indicating market expansion.
• Out-of-pocket costs are declining and employer coverage is expected to rise.
• Global expansion in markets like China and Brazil is expected as costs come down.
• GLP-1 adoption could reduce US calorie consumption, impacting food, retail, and healthcare services.