Squawk Pod: Anthropic’s fight & the AI job revolution - 03/11/26 | Audio Only
Speakers
Becky Quick — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
— CNBC Squawk Box host
Joe Kernen — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
— CNBC Squawk Box co-anchor
Andrew Ross Sorkin — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
— CNBC Squawk Box host
Robert Frank — Wealth Reporter, CNBC
— CNBC wealth reporter
Summary
- Global oil markets are experiencing extreme volatility (WTI whipsawing from $119 to $88) driven by the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, conflicting government reports, and potential Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
- Microsoft is taking a unique, public stand against the Pentagon to support its AI partner Anthropic, a move that could serve as a watershed moment for attracting top engineering talent based on corporate values.
- AI is rapidly accelerating the displacement of white-collar and entry-level coding jobs, with autonomous coding enterprise revenues up 100x.
- The market is heavily rewarding tech companies that execute aggressive layoffs to replace human labor with AI, as evidenced by Block's recent 40% headcount reduction and subsequent 24% stock pop.
- Despite narratives of a corporate exodus to low-tax states like Florida, major NYC commercial real estate landlords are seeing a resurgence in demand for office space.
- Ultra-wealthy investors are funneling capital into high-end alternative assets and collectibles (art, classic cars) as a safe haven amid public market volatility.
Trade Ideas
WTI went from 119 to 88 the day before... the market trades off of every word that is posted anywhere on any of these areas. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz, combined with deleted government tweets and threats of Iranian mines, has created an environment where crude oil is trading purely on erratic geopolitical headlines rather than fundamentals. The extreme whipsaw action makes directional bets highly dangerous until a clear de-escalation or definitive military outcome is reached. WATCH oil markets closely, as the geopolitical risk premium is highly unstable and subject to massive intraday swings based on social media posts and military updates. A sudden peace agreement or definitive opening of the Straits could cause a massive collapse in the geopolitical premium, while a direct strike on Iranian oil facilities could send prices skyrocketing instantly.
Standing up for your values in an environment where you're not supposed to is actually going to help this company... a lot of engineers want to now go work for Anthropic. Microsoft's decision to file an amicus brief supporting Anthropic against the Pentagon contrasts sharply with competitors like Amazon who remained silent. In the highly competitive AI space, top-tier engineering talent gravitates toward companies that protect their partners and stand by their ethical frameworks. This talent acquisition advantage will compound Microsoft's lead in AI development. LONG because Microsoft is securing the loyalty of the most critical resource in the AI boom—human engineering talent—by taking a calculated political risk. The Trump administration or the Pentagon could retaliate by pulling lucrative government contracts from Microsoft, impacting near-term enterprise revenue.
Block laid off 40% of their workers the other day, their stock popped 24%... the savvy CEOs are seeing the writing on the wall. AI tools and autonomous coding agents are now capable of replacing large swaths of white-collar tech workers. Companies that aggressively adopt these tools to slash bloated payrolls will see immediate, massive margin expansion. The market is explicitly rewarding this "AI-efficiency playbook" with significant multiple expansion. LONG companies like Block that are willing to execute deep, AI-driven structural cost cuts, as Wall Street will aggressively bid up their shares in response to improved profitability. Over-cutting staff could lead to product degradation, implementation failures with autonomous code, or severe internal cultural backlash that harms long-term innovation.
All these real estate guys in New York say that everyone's coming to New York... All these companies are now trying to buy office space in New York City. The widely accepted narrative that high taxes and remote work would permanently kill New York City commercial real estate is proving false. Corporations are actively acquiring and leasing office space in NYC again, which directly benefits prime Manhattan commercial landlords who have survived the downturn and are now positioned for a demand recovery. LONG because the underlying demand for premium NYC office space is rebounding, catching bearish consensus off guard. Potential new tax hikes from Albany could eventually force a delayed corporate exodus, or persistently high interest rates could strain commercial real estate refinancing.
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