AI Semiconductor Performance Increasingly Determined by HBM: Good Fortune for Korean Memory

AI반도체 성능 갈수록 HBM이 좌우 … K메모리에는 '천운'

Watch on YouTube ↗ | February 10, 2026 at 05:53 | 1:07:57 | Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)

Speakers

Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Summary

Park Se-ik reviews daily market news and adds investment implications. He highlights record Korean brokerage profits from heavy trading, warns that China's US Treasury reduction keeps long-term Treasury yields and refinancing risks high, and sees China's gold buying supporting gold. On AI semiconductors, he says HBM and advanced packaging are the key bottlenecks, favoring Korean memory and TSMC, while NVIDIA's high GPU prices invite substitutes.

Park Se-ik reviews community messages and news, starting with a brief note on pre-holiday selling pressure.
Korean defense firms are showcasing weapons in Saudi Arabia, but the segment is mostly a headline recap without a clear investment call.
Korean securities firms are posting record profits from the trading boom, with Mirae Asset Securities showing strong operating leverage and peers near record operating profit.
China's guidance to banks to reduce US Treasury purchases is framed as pressure on long-end Treasuries and support for gold, as China increases gold reserves and retail buying.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent blames Chinese speculation for gold volatility, while Fed nominee Kevin Warsh's QT/rate-cut thesis faces skepticism.
The AI semiconductor segment argues HBM and advanced packaging are key bottlenecks, favoring Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and TSMC, while NVIDIA faces long-term substitution risk.
The host also flags Musk's proposed Tesla Tera fab as a potential long-term risk to incumbents.

Ideas

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 30:30

Trading boom lifts Korean brokers' profits.

Korean securities firms are direct beneficiaries of the domestic trading boom: record daily trading volume has lifted brokerage commissions, while fixed costs create strong operating leverage. Mirae Asset Securities' 2025 revenue rose 31.7% but operating profit rose 61.2% and net income rose 72%; brokerage fees rose 43% to KRW 1.01tn, and AUM grew about KRW 120tn to KRW 600tn. Large peers such as Kiwoom, NH Investment, Samsung Securities, and Korea Investment Holdings are also near record operating profit, and KB Securities raised its 2025 average daily trading value forecast to KRW 45.6tn, suggesting the growth trend continues.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 35:47

China selling keeps long-term Treasuries risky.

China's financial authorities informally told domestic banks to stop buying US Treasuries and reduce holdings, which the speaker interprets as China exploiting America's refinancing vulnerability: as US debt matures, the Treasury must refinance at much higher yields, creating a vicious cycle of high rates and interest costs. Wall Street is also warning about long-duration Treasury volatility, and DoubleLine's Jeff Sherman says investors should be very cautious on long-term bonds. This makes long-term US Treasuries unattractive.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 43:37

China buying supports gold.

China is reducing US Treasury exposure and buying gold to protect the yuan and reduce reliance on the dollar; its gold holdings have risen, and Chinese retail investors bought 432 tons of gold bars and coins last year, up 28% and a major share of global retail demand. Even as US officials blame Chinese speculation for gold volatility, the speaker views China's official and retail buying as durable support for gold, reinforcing doubts about the US Treasury's safe-haven status.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 54:26

HBM bottleneck favors AI semiconductor supply chain.

AI semiconductor performance is increasingly constrained by memory, especially HBM, and advanced packaging. HBM stacks DRAM vertically with TSV and must be packaged with the GPU via TSMC's CoWoS, so AI chip performance depends on the logic, memory, and packaging chain together. HBM has high technical barriers and only Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron can make it, making HBM a bottleneck and a key value driver. The article argues this is a fortunate setup for Korean memory.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 61:12

SK hynix leads HBM bottleneck.

SK hynix is the HBM leader and one of only three companies that can make HBM. Because HBM is the memory bottleneck for AI chip performance and is technically difficult to produce, SK hynix benefits from AI demand and has stayed ahead of Samsung in HBM. The speaker notes HBM remains a high-price, oligopolistic market.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 61:51

TSMC's CoWoS packaging dominates AI chips.

TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging has no real challenger, and TSMC produces about 90% of leading-edge logic. Because memory makers send HBM to TSMC to be packaged with GPUs, TSMC is the indispensable linchpin of the AI semiconductor supply chain. The speaker sees this as a strong moat.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 62:14

Samsung's turnkey AI chip role improves.

Samsung Electronics is the only company that can challenge TSMC's packaging dominance as a one-stop AI semiconductor supplier: it can make memory/HBM, run logic foundry, and perform advanced packaging. After earlier HBM3 and CoWoS setbacks that hurt the stock, the speaker says Samsung has caught up, and its memory, foundry, and other businesses are now doing well. If NVIDIA and big tech can send designs to Samsung, it can deliver turnkey AI semiconductors.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 63:36

NVIDIA faces inevitable cheaper substitutes.

NVIDIA's GPUs are so expensive that substitution attempts are inevitable. Google TPU, Amazon Trainium, Tesla AI6, and alternative LPDDR-based accelerators are emerging, and the speaker says GPU prices cannot stay this strong forever. This creates long-term pressure on NVIDIA's pricing power and dominance, even if it remains the current leader.

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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published February 10, 2026, features Park Se-ik discussing 006800.KS, 039490.KS, 005940.KS, 071050.KS, 016360.KS, TLT, GLD, SMH, MU, 000660.KS, TSM, 005930.KS, NVDA. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Se-ik · Tickers: 006800.KS, 039490.KS, 005940.KS, 071050.KS, 016360.KS, TLT, GLD, SMH, MU, 000660.KS, TSM, 005930.KS, NVDA