US DOJ Investigating Fed; US Monitoring Iran Protests | Horizons Middle East & Africa 1/12/2025

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 12, 2026 at 08:01  |  45:53  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Aarthi Chandrasekaran — Head of Public Markets at Shuaa Capital
Joumanna Bercetche — Anchor, Bloomberg
Winnie Hsu — Bloomberg Reporter (Asia Markets)
Philip Bahoshy — Founder & CEO, MAGNiTT
Elisabeth Wallace — Associate Director, Policy & Legal, DFSA
Alan Eyre — Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow, Middle East Institute & Former Senior US Diplomat

Summary

Bloomberg Horizons Middle East & Africa covers the market fallout from the DOJ subpoena of the Federal Reserve, the third week of protests in Iran, and the geopolitical premium in oil. Aarthi Chandrasekaran of Shuaa Capital warns that Fed independence concerns and a possible inflation resurgence could push 10-year Treasury yields higher and eventually weigh on the dollar, while oil remains two-sided. Later segments cover South Africa's naval drills with Iran and Russia, Middle East venture capital trends, Dubai crypto regulation, and the Iran protest crackdown.

  • The Fed receives DOJ grand jury subpoenas over renovations, raising Fed independence concerns.
  • US futures and the dollar fall, while safe-haven gold and silver rise.
  • Iran protests enter a third week amid a deadly crackdown and economic discontent.
  • Brent and WTI carry a geopolitical risk premium on potential supply disruption.
  • Aarthi Chandrasekaran expects higher 10-year Treasury yields and later dollar weakness.
  • South Africa's naval drills with Iran, Russia, and China risk US relations.
  • Middle East VC dealmaking and AI investment are growing, especially in the GCC.
  • Dubai's regulator updates crypto token rules and expects more suitable tokens and volumes.
Ideas
Aarthi Chandrasekaran Head of Public Markets at Shuaa Capital 8:37
Ten-year yields can rise to 4.6%
The Fed has cut 175 basis points, but the 10-year Treasury yield is higher than before the cutting cycle began, showing a meaningful term premium. If inflation resurges and a politically pressured Fed does not respond, the 10-year yield could go to 4.5%-4.6%, and she says this is what they are positioned for in 2026.
US10Y HIGH
Aarthi Chandrasekaran Head of Public Markets at Shuaa Capital 9:51
Dollar weakens later as inflation returns
The dollar may initially remain resilient versus emerging-market currencies because the Fed is unlikely to move over the next one or two meetings and inflation is still benign, but as the year progresses she expects inflation to return and Fed independence to be questioned. If politics plays a larger role than policy, that would be very detrimental to the dollar.
USD MED
Aarthi Chandrasekaran Head of Public Markets at Shuaa Capital 10:50
Oil faces oversupply but geopolitical premium
Oil is hard to predict politically, and fundamentally there is downside risk because the market is oversupplied. However, a $3-$4 geopolitical risk premium is already embedded, and if geopolitics worsen, higher oil would add further pressure to inflation and the consumer household, creating a two-sided setup to monitor.
WTI MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 12, 2026, features Aarthi Chandrasekaran discussing US10Y, USD, WTI. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Aarthi Chandrasekaran  · Tickers: US10Y, USD, WTI