Is Macro Regime Shift Underway? ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 09, 2026 at 21:29  |  30:39  |  Real Vision
Speakers
Andreas Steno Larsen — Founder, Steno Research
Mikkel Rosenvold — Co-founder, Nordic Blockchain Association

Summary

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold discuss a macro regime shift from QE-like to gung-ho, driven by returning cyclical growth, low inflation, and a coming capex cycle. They argue the Fed under Kevin Warsh may formalize Treasury cooperation and boost credit/liquidity, while equity leadership rotates out of precious metals and technology into real-life assets and consumer discretionary. Geopolitical risks around Iran support oil, and crypto remains a political battlefield ahead of the midterms. Space tech is highlighted as the year's high-beta AI trade, primarily a missile-defense bet.

  • Silver volatility spilled into broader markets via VaR and positioning pullbacks.
  • Fed-Treasury cooperation under Kevin Warsh seen as credit and liquidity enhancing.
  • Macro regime shift favors real-life assets and consumer discretionary over precious metals.
  • Space tech highlighted as a high-beta AI trade tied to missile defense and Golden Dome.
  • Iran strike risk keeps oil biased higher and adds market volatility.
  • Crypto policy and the Clarity Act are monitored as midterm political catalysts.
Ideas
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 14:24
Precious metals trade backdrop is over
The perfect macro backdrop for precious-metals trades since late last year is now behind us. The regime is shifting from QE-like to gung-ho: cyclical growth is returning while inflation stays low and liquidity remains positive, which favors rotation out of crowded trades like precious metals. The violent silver volatility shock also triggered a value-at-risk shock and broad de-risking, reinforcing that the best backdrop for the trade has passed.
GLTR SILVER HIGH
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 14:57
Rotate into real-life assets
The macro regime shift to cyclical growth with low inflation speaks in favor of rotating out of the crowded trades investors piled into earlier this year and into real-life assets. Consumer staples, industrials, and energy have been trading higher relative to technology and consumer discretionary, consistent with a rotation into real-economy sectors.
XLE XLI XLP MED
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 15:12
Lower inflation boosts consumer discretionary
Inflation is coming down more than the Wall Street consensus expects, with near-term prints likely very soft. Lower inflation improves household purchasing power and supports discretionary spending, which is especially positive for consumer discretionary. Amazon, Tesla, and similar stocks are directly tied to this returning discretionary spending cycle.
XLY AMZN TSLA MED
Mikkel Rosenvold Co-founder, Nordic Blockchain Association 15:51
Iran strike risk supports oil
Oil is looking strong and is directly tied to the Iran situation. With nuclear talks stalled and an increased chance of a US or Israeli strike on Iran this week, oil markets are already showing signs of increasing prices; a strike would have significant impacts on oil and inject volatility into markets.
WTI MED
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 20:50
Space tech is the levered AI trade
Space tech has been the high-beta, levered AI trade this year rather than quantum, and it has delivered strong returns in their portfolio. The trade is primarily a bet on missile defense and Trump's Golden Dome project, supported by the run-up to SpaceX's IPO and administration focus.
ARKX HIGH
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 26:41
Fed-Treasury pact boosts credit
The prospective Kevin Warsh Fed paired with a formal Treasury-Fed cooperation pact is a regime shift that will be highly credit- and liquidity-enhancing over the next two to three years. Policymakers are trying to orchestrate a credit bonanza similar to 2005-2007, channeling more credit into the economy through cooperation between the Fed, Treasury, and private sector, which should support credit assets.
LQD MED
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This Real Vision video, published February 09, 2026, features Andreas Steno Larsen, Mikkel Rosenvold discussing GLTR, SILVER, XLE, XLI, XLP, XLY, AMZN, TSLA, WTI, ARKX, LQD. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Andreas Steno Larsen, Mikkel Rosenvold  · Tickers: GLTR, SILVER, XLE, XLI, XLP, XLY, AMZN, TSLA, WTI, ARKX, LQD