The “Everything Code”: The Macro Model Behind Bitcoin’s Next Rally w/ Raoul Pal
Speakers
Raoul Pal
— Founder & CEO, Real Vision
Summary
Raoul Pal explains his 'Everything Code' macro framework, arguing that global liquidity is the main driver of Bitcoin and crypto. He attributes recent crypto weakness to a liquidity air pocket and the October 10 liquidation shock, not the end of the cycle. He expects improving financial conditions, bank leverage via SLR changes, fiscal stimulus, debt rollover, and Chinese printing to lift liquidity, with gold leading and crypto catching up in 2026. He also discusses the ongoing market-structure repair after the record liquidation.
- Global liquidity explains roughly 90% of Bitcoin moves in Raoul Pal's framework.
- Recent liquidity was drained by Treasury General Account rebuilding, reverse repo depletion, and a long government shutdown.
- The October 10 liquidation broke crypto market structure and forced exchanges to absorb inventory.
- Raoul expects liquidity to rise as financial conditions loosen, the dollar weakens, and yields stay low or stable.
- The SLR/risk-weight change allows banks to absorb more Treasuries and create leverage and liquidity.
- Fiscal stimulus, bank lending, AI/data-center buildout, and Chinese printing support a strong 2026 backdrop.
- Gold is seen as leading crypto, with the liquidity/gold-crypto gap expected to close.
- A potential partial government shutdown is the main near-term risk.
Ideas
Liquidity repair drives Bitcoin rally in 2026
Raoul Pal's 'Everything Code' framework argues global liquidity is the primary driver of Bitcoin and crypto, explaining about 90% of Bitcoin's moves. He expects liquidity to rise as financial conditions loosen: the dollar is at a cycle low, bond yields are stable or trending lower, the SLR/risk-weight change lets banks absorb more Treasuries and create leverage/liquidity, the government must roll about $8 trillion of debt, fiscal stimulus and bank lending should revive the business cycle, and China is accelerating money printing. The October 10 liquidation caused a crypto-specific market-structure break and liquidity dislocation, but exchanges are repairing their balance sheets and the gap between global liquidity/gold and crypto should close, allowing crypto and Bitcoin to catch up, especially into a strong 2026.
Gold leads crypto as liquidity loosens
Gold mirrors financial conditions and has led crypto for roughly the last eight to ten years. Because financial conditions have been loosening, gold's leadership is a positive signal that global liquidity is improving and that crypto should eventually catch up. This supports a constructive stance on gold as the cleaner leading expression of the same liquidity impulse.
Up Next
This Milk Road Daily video, published February 08, 2026, features Raoul Pal discussing BTC, GLD. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.