Bitcoin desaba 50%, o que está acontecendo?

Summary

Fernando Ulrich analyzes the sharp Bitcoin drawdown, reviewing and dismissing several explanations such as regulation, Epstein-related news, Basel rules, and quantum computing. He argues the main driver is Bitcoin's financialization and leverage, while the halving cycle still points to a bear market that may not be over and a possible bottom around October 2026. He maintains a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin, citing MVRV near 1 as an attractive entry signal, and explains why Strategy and OranjeBTC have low forced-liquidation risk.

• Bitcoin fell sharply amid extreme volatility in precious metals and signs of stress in market plumbing.
• Regulation, Epstein-related news, Basel rules, and quantum computing are dismissed as weak or secondary causes.
• Financialization, leverage, ETFs, and derivatives are identified as the main amplifiers of the recent crash.
• The four-year halving cycle still appears intact, suggesting the bear market may not be over and the bottom could be lower and later.
• MVRV near 1 is presented as historically an excellent medium/long-term Bitcoin entry signal.
• Strategy's liquidation risk is assessed as very low due to convertible debt terms, maturities, and cash buffer.
• Ulrich remains long-term positive on Bitcoin and is an advisor/investor in OranjeBTC due to its low-leverage treasury strategy.
• He advises avoiding leverage and forced selling in Bitcoin allocations.