Massive Metals Selloff, Iran Warns of Regional War | Horizons Middle East & Africa

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 02, 2026 at 09:57  |  46:05  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Martin Ritchie — Metals & Mining Reporter
Guy Stear — Head of Developed Markets Strategy, Amundi Investment Institute
Karen Young — Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University
Omar AlYawer — Partner, Ruya Partners
Jill Disis — Managing Editor, Bloomberg Hong Kong
Stuart Livingstone-Wallace — Bloomberg Executive Editor for Middle East, North Africa, and Russia
Min Min Low — China Correspondent, Bloomberg
Joumanna Bercetche — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

Markets are in a broad risk-off move as gold and silver extend an historic plunge on positioning unwinds, with stocks, bitcoin and copper also lower after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to chair the Fed and the dollar strengthened. Geopolitical focus stays on US-Iran tensions, where Trump signals openness to talks while Khamenei warns of a regional war, and oil slides on the diplomatic prospect. Guests map the Warsh implications for the curve, dollar, JGBs and European fixed income, the Middle East private-credit opportunity, and Turkey's expanding role in Somalia.

  • Gold and silver extend record declines; copper and the broader metals complex slump as speculative positioning unwinds.
  • Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Fed lifts the dollar and shifts market attention to the balance sheet and curve steepening.
  • Guy Stear favors US curve steepeners, near-term dollar strength, JGBs and European periphery bonds.
  • Oil slides as Trump signals openness to talks with Iran; Karen Young sees no fear premium until real infrastructure threats appear.
  • Iran's Supreme Leader warns of a regional war while Gulf diplomatic efforts continue.
  • Omar AlYawer points to growing mid-market private-credit demand in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
  • Asian equities fall on weak China PMIs and tech selling, and Turkey deploys F-16s to Somalia.
Ideas
Martin Ritchie Metals & Mining Reporter 7:04
Copper dip-buying on energy transition
Chinese funds and influential commentators who steer metals prices remain bullish and see copper as a long-term investment because of its role in the energy transition and electrification worldwide; setting aside near-term demand headwinds, record trading activity on the Shanghai futures exchange shows dip buyers emerging now, particularly in base metals.
COPPER DBB MED
Guy Stear Head of Developed Markets Strategy, Amundi Investment Institute 14:09
US curve steepener favored on Warsh
The market is assuming Kevin Warsh will deliver lower short-term interest rates while keeping the Fed's balance sheet in check, which should keep steepening the U.S. curve toward 2011-2012 levels; he thinks steepening trades make sense and expects short-term rate cuts a couple of times in Q2, but warns that long rates rise during the steepening, and that government and corporate funding needs plus capex will put upward pressure on yields and pressure on the Fed to expand the balance sheet again by Q3/Q4.
US Treasury Curve Steepener HIGH
Guy Stear Head of Developed Markets Strategy, Amundi Investment Institute 16:00
Bullish on dollar on hawkish Warsh
The dollar's support after the Warsh nomination is consistent with Warsh being a monetary hawk at heart, and with curve-steepening dynamics in place he is bullish on the dollar, though he expects this stance to change in the fullness of time.
USD MED
Guy Stear Head of Developed Markets Strategy, Amundi Investment Institute 16:23
Long JGBs; 10-year yields seen lower
JGBs are reaching attractive levels: Japanese pension funds and life insurers could repatriate money from the U.S. back to Japan once yen volatility rises, which would support JGBs, and with the curve this steep the carry trade for Japanese regional banks, borrowing short-term to invest in JGBs, looks very attractive and should stabilize the market and ultimately drive 10-year JGB yields lower.
Japanese government bonds MED
Guy Stear Head of Developed Markets Strategy, Amundi Investment Institute 17:06
European hedged fixed income offers Treasury pickup
European fixed income is attractive, especially for U.S. or regional investors who hedge back into their domestic currencies because they get a pickup over Treasuries; European consumer demand looks soft at the start of 2026 and Germany's fiscal policy rollout will probably take longer than the government thinks, so the ECB could cut rates twice by the second quarter.
BNDX MED
Guy Stear Head of Developed Markets Strategy, Amundi Investment Institute 17:26
Long periphery on BTP spread compression
Within European fixed income the best pick is European peripherals because BTP spreads to Germany continue to contract, making periphery spread compression the preferred expression of the European fixed income call.
European peripheral government bonds (BTPs) MED
Karen Young Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University 30:38
Oil: no premium until real threat
The oil market is very well supplied with spare capacity out of the Arabian Peninsula, so there is no big fear premium until something real happens; symbolic attacks like last summer's 12-day war would keep prices in the sub-$80 range, while real threats to Strait of Hormuz transit or attacks on physical infrastructure would change the market considerably, and OPEC+ has plenty of spare capacity to bring to the market if needed.
WTI MED
Omar AlYawer Partner, Ruya Partners 36:02
Middle East private credit offers strong returns
Middle East private credit is a structural growth story: regional banks were never structured to lend to mid-market corporates, leaving a financing gap that has grown from roughly $100 million of transactions a year in 2009 to about $2.7-2.8 billion a year today; fundraising is shifting to local managers and returns are attractive, with roughly 18% IRR generated without fund-level leverage versus U.S. peers who rely on leverage, and Saudi/UAE direct lending still offers preferential IRRs relative to other jurisdictions.
Middle East private credit MED
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815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Feb 02

This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 02, 2026, features Martin Ritchie, Guy Stear, Karen Young, Omar AlYawer discussing COPPER, DBB, US Treasury Curve Steepener, USD, Japanese government bonds, BNDX, European peripheral government bonds (BTPs), WTI, Middle East private credit. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Martin Ritchie, Guy Stear, Karen Young, Omar AlYawer  · Tickers: COPPER, DBB, US Treasury Curve Steepener, USD, Japanese government bonds, BNDX, European peripheral government bonds (BTPs), WTI, Middle East private credit