Get Ready: Gold Crash To $3,500, Bitcoin To Collapse 90% | Mike McGlone
Speakers
Mike McGlone
— Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence
David Lin
— Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News
Summary
Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, tells David Lin that gold and Bitcoin have reached classic late-stage bull-market extremes and are vulnerable to major mean reversion. He expects gold could fall to about $3,500 and Bitcoin could lose a zero, with altcoins down 95-99%, while copper, industrial metals, crude oil, and MicroStrategy are also at risk if the stock market corrects. His preferred trade is long-duration US Treasuries, supported by a deflationary tilt, falling yields, and extremely complacent equity volatility.
- Gold is viewed as extremely stretched after a historic rally and at risk of a roughly one-third drop to $3,500.
- Bitcoin is seen as a late-stage pile-on trade at risk of a 90% decline, with the broader altcoin market potentially falling 95-99%.
- Mike favors long-dated US Treasuries as the last cheap asset and expects deflation, lower yields, and a stock-market correction.
- US equities are described as extremely expensive and dependent on the wealth effect, with a normal correction potentially around 50%.
- Copper, industrial metals, and crude oil are framed as vulnerable to weak demand and a stock-market downturn.
- Gold/silver ratio and VIX are expected to rise as volatility normalizes, and MicroStrategy is seen as technically broken with downside toward $100.
- The Fed is expected to cut rates toward 3% by next year, a path already priced in and supportive of Treasuries.
Ideas
Gold stretched, likely peaked, risks $3,500.
Gold has rallied to $4,000 after its fourth-best year in the last century and is now more stretched versus its 40/50/60-month and 100/200-day moving averages than at any time since around 1981, a classic late-stage peak. Similar to Bitcoin after $100,000, the bullish fuel may be exhausted, and normal mean reversion from such extremes could easily take gold down by a third to around $3,500; going to $5,000 soon would be unprecedented. Investors should not chase or buy gold here.
Bitcoin risks losing a zero.
Bitcoin's move to $100,000 last year was a classic late-stage, pile-on peak: since then it has lagged other risk assets, become more correlated to a stretched stock market, and is showing divergent weakness. With even a small stock-market backup, Bitcoin is at risk of losing a zero and dropping about 90%, while the rest of crypto could fall 95-99%; the space needs a purge before investors overweight it again.
Altcoins risk 95-99% crash.
The rest of the crypto market is an unlimited-supply pile-on trade, with roughly 25 million cryptocurrencies according to CoinMarketCap, and much of it is highly correlated to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin loses a zero, the broader altcoin space could drop 95% or more, with the most speculative tokens down as much as 99%, so the space needs a purge before it is attractive to overweight again.
Long Treasuries as deflation trade.
Mike favors US Treasuries, especially long-duration/long-end bonds, as the last attractive asset after gold and Bitcoin have become stretched. Long Treasuries have gained even as stocks rose and inflation ran hot, the Treasury market is historically cheap versus gold, and he expects a deflationary normalization/stock-market correction to push yields lower and bond prices higher; the coming Fed rate path toward 3% and a 5% stock correction would be catalysts.
Crude oil weak on deflation pressure.
Crude oil is down about 14-15% this year while gold is up about 52%, the widest historical disparity between the key global commodity and the key store of value. That divergence is a deflationary signal, and if the stock market gives back a chunk of its gains, crude oil could fall toward $40; oil is already ticking lower even with stocks up.
US stocks risk major correction.
The US stock market is the most expensive and most wealth-effect-dependent in history, and gold's parabolic move with low volatility is warning that volatility reversion is coming. Mike sticks with a bias that the stock market will eventually give back gains or have a normal correction of roughly 50%; historical Fed easing cycles in 2001 and 2007 were followed by roughly 50% declines.
Gold/silver ratio likely continues higher.
The gold/silver ratio bottomed around 80 and is now around 85; it has historically rarely settled much above 90, and Mike expects it to continue higher because stock-market volatility is abnormally low and likely to pick up, while gold is increasingly a central-bank store of value. A rising ratio is a warning sign for broader risk assets and implies gold should outperform silver.
VIX too low; volatility likely rises.
VIX around 16 is almost twice realized 90-day volatility, the widest implied-versus-realized spread in 13 years, showing complete stock-market complacency. Mike expects volatility to pick up, especially if stocks fall, and sees the rising gold/silver ratio as a warning; higher volatility would pressure high-beta risk assets.
Industrial metals depend on stocks rising.
Industrial metals are up only about 14% this year, roughly in line with the S&P 500 and broad commodities, and are being supported mainly by gold rather than real demand. Mike says they will be fine only as long as the stock market keeps rising, leaving them vulnerable to a sharp fall if equities roll over.
Copper vulnerable; stocks down, copper plunges.
Copper is near all-time highs largely because of a rare 10% supply-constraint year and gold's pull, not durable industrial demand. It has an inordinate burden to keep rising, its usual correlations with Chinese iron ore, Chinese bond yields, and crude oil are weakening, and if the stock market ticks down, copper and Bitcoin could fall with double the velocity. He worries copper is the tip of the iceberg for commodities.
Dogecoin exemplifies crypto excess, purge risk.
Dogecoin illustrates the speculative excess in crypto: a coin launched as a joke is now the ninth-largest crypto and trades around a $30 billion valuation despite unlimited competing supply. Mike argues this is a sign the whole space needs a purge, and Dogecoin-type assets are among those that could fall as much as 99% in a reset.
MicroStrategy chart broken; downside to $100.
MicroStrategy's 200-day moving average has rolled over after peaking around $500 in 2024, and it has fallen back to roughly $290-300. Mike says the normal cycle in that market would take it back toward $100, as it has done before, and he sees its doubling down on a Bitcoin treasury strategy as a classic late-cycle mistake that the market may punish.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published October 28, 2025, features Mike McGlone discussing GLD, BTC, ALTCOINS, TLT, WTI, SPY, Gold/silver ratio, VIX, DBB, COPPER, DOGE, MSTR. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mike McGlone · Tickers: GLD, BTC, ALTCOINS, TLT, WTI, SPY, Gold/silver ratio, VIX, DBB, COPPER, DOGE, MSTR