TSMC December Revenue: Order Surge and Price Increases
TSMC 12월 매출...주문 급증 및 가격 인상
Speakers
Choi Ho
— Vice President
Park Se-ik
— CEO, ex-Chief Strategist
Summary
The video reviews TSMC's stronger-than-consensus December and fourth-quarter revenue, highlighting Taiwan dollar weakness, JPMorgan's positive margin/EPS outlook, and a maintained NT$2,100 target price. It also discusses the read-across to Taiwan equities and Korean semiconductor exporters. The later segment turns to a historical 2007 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac warning and macro monitoring of employment data before the Sahm rule.
- TSMC's December and fourth-quarter revenue beat consensus, supported by TWD weakness and high utilization.
- JPMorgan expects higher TSMC gross margin, further EPS upgrades, and maintained NT$2,100 target price.
- JPMorgan forecasts 2026 TSMC USD revenue growth of 30%, above the 25% consensus.
- Taiwan dollar weakness is linked to stronger Taiwan exporter earnings and a rising Taiwan weighted index.
- The speaker sees similar export/FX dynamics in Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and other Korean exporters.
- Park Se-ik recounts the 2007 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac decline as an early subprime-crisis warning.
- The closing macro discussion monitors unemployment and Service PMI data ahead of the Sahm rule.
Ideas
TSMC beats, margins rise, target maintained.
TSMC's December and fourth-quarter revenue beat market consensus, with TWD weakness and high utilization flattering TWD-denominated results. JPMorgan expects fourth-quarter gross margin at the upper end of guidance and possibly 62%, first-quarter 2026 revenue roughly flat QoQ, and gross margin rising to 63% on order surge, price increases, and continued TWD weakness. It sees further EPS upgrades, keeps a NT$2,100 target price versus the current ~NT$1,680, and forecasts 2026 USD revenue growth of 30% versus 25% consensus, supporting continued share-price strength.
Weak TWD lifts Taiwan exporters and index.
The Taiwan dollar weakened since July and especially in Q4, and because exports are about 70% of Taiwan's GDP, this lifted exporter earnings and helped drive a sharp rise in the Taiwan weighted index. The speaker treats this as a supportive backdrop for continued Taiwan equity strength.
Korean chip exporters mirror TSMC's FX tailwind.
The speaker says TSMC's strong export-driven performance and TWD weakness look similar to Korea's Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and other exporters, with similar stock-price behavior. This is a read-across suggesting Korean semiconductor exporters may share the same export/FX tailwind, though the point is brief and not an independent company-specific call.
