Ideas
Brent elevated on geopolitical supply risk
Brent has again surpassed $100 and trades around $108 due to geopolitical and supply risk: Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil and LNG, the Saudi east-west pipeline that carried 4 million barrels per day was temporarily closed, and Bab el Mandeb is under growing threat. The simultaneous loss of flexibility across these routes keeps a bullish risk premium in crude.
European gas tight on low storage
European natural gas has surged to about €83/MWh, up 35% month-on-month and more than double year-on-year, just as European storage is around 67%, the lowest for this date since 2011. TTF has broken upward, and the global LNG market is tightening because Qatar, about one-fifth of world gas, has seen shipments collapse and Europe competes with Asia for available cargoes. A cold winter or more LNG limitations would increase the risk further.
Diesel squeezed by refining bottleneck
The bottleneck is not only crude extraction but refining: US diesel/gasoil has hit record highs, Europe is around €2/liter, and diesel is rising more than gasoline. On a base-100 comparison, Brent is near 155, gasoline around 180 and low-sulfur gasoil above 250. Diesel moves trucks, ships, machinery, mining, construction and industry, so its rise pressures costs across the economy.
Copper demand outpacing slow supply
Copper remains extraordinarily elevated because electrification, grids, vehicles, motors, transformers, cooling, data centers, wind turbines and AI drive demand faster than a mining supply that takes 10-15 years to respond and faces permits, political instability, water constraints and declining ore quality. Demand could rise from about 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million in 2040, while recent discoveries are small. Extracting the next tonne will be structurally more expensive.
Broad commodity indices are breaking out
The four major commodity indices (S&P GSCI, DBC, CRB and Bloomberg Commodity Index) are breaking or attacking their 2022 highs, showing that the impulse is no longer only oil-driven and is broadening into a wider basket of resources. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surpassed levels not seen since 2013, the CRB has clearly broken recent highs, DBC is attacking 2022 resistance and GSCI has already exceeded it. The different energy weights in each index reinforce the breadth signal.
Fertilizer prices rise on gas, logistics
More than 30% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports is exposed to Hormuz restrictions; the Gulf is decisive in urea and ammonia. Natural gas is feedstock and energy for ammonia, and ammonia is used to make urea. If gas becomes expensive or fertilizer cannot leave, farmers pay more or use less fertilizer, reducing yields and raising the risk of more expensive food months later. There is no international strategic reserve comparable to oil. Urea went from about $400 to more than $850 per tonne.
Industrial metals have differentiated drivers
The situation is not identical across industrial metals: aluminum requires huge amounts of electricity, nickel is conditioned by rising Indonesian production and battery technology changes, and zinc depends heavily on construction and industrial activity. Talking about a supercycle does not mean all will rise equally; what they share is that opening new mining capacity requires capital, time, permits and regulatory stability.
Gold as monetary protection asset
Gold has limited supply, but its price depends mainly on its role as a store of value when concerns about inflation, debt, monetary policy or currency stability increase. Investors and central banks seek protection in an asset that cannot be created by pressing a key.
Silver has dual monetary-industrial upside
Silver combines monetary and industrial demand: it is used in electronics, solar panels, automobiles and many technological processes, so it can benefit simultaneously from monetary protection demand and industrial growth. But that dual nature makes it more volatile; if the economy weakens, its industrial component can cause sharper corrections than in gold.
Wheat supported by Black Sea logistics
Russia and Ukraine together represent about 27% of global wheat exports. Attacks on ports, terminals, infrastructure and ships complicate and increase the cost of shipments; the USDA has cut export forecasts and Asian buyers are substituting with Australian and Argentine wheat, which costs $30-60 more per tonne. The product still exists, but transporting it from elsewhere and insuring delivery costs much more, which can become food inflation.
Corn and sugar face El Niño risk
Corn and sugar have recently posted important gains on fears of El Niño damage in South America, India and other producing regions. El Niño raises the probability of extreme outcomes, reduces harvest predictability and increases volatility; agricultural prices start reacting when the probability of a bad harvest rises, without waiting for confirmation.
Copper exporters benefit from high prices
Chile and Peru can benefit from higher copper; Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo can also receive more export income. Exporting countries receive more dollars, improve their terms of trade and may see their currencies appreciate.
Australia, Canada, Brazil benefit from commodities
The United States, Canada, Australia, Brazil and Argentina can benefit when international cereal prices rise, provided their own harvests are not damaged. Exporting countries receive more dollars, improve their terms of trade and may see their currencies appreciate.
Commodity importers face cost squeeze
Economies that must buy abroad most of their energy, food and minerals are harmed. Japan imports almost all its energy and many raw materials; Europe depends externally for energy and several strategic metals; China, despite being a large industrial producer, imports enormous amounts of oil, copper, iron ore and soybeans. The impact is harder for emerging countries with weak currencies because commodities are priced in dollars; Egypt and Indonesia, large cereal importers, pay more for the product, transport and dollars, reducing their consumption capacity.
Commodity producers diverge from inflation expectations
The global commodity producers index is at all-time highs while the US 5-year forward 5-year inflation expectation remains around 2.31%. Producers and the bond market are telling different stories; this does not prove inflation will surge, but it indicates the resource market is discounting pressure not yet fully expressed in monetary expectations.
This Pablo Gil video, published September 16, 2026,
features Pablo Gil
discussing BNO, TTF, LNG, Gasóleo bajo en azufre, UGA, COPX, DBC, GSG, CRB, Amoníaco, DBA, Aluminio, Níquel, DBB, GLD, SLV, WEAT, CORN, CANE, ECH, EPU, Zambia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, EWZ, EWC, EWA, United States (economy), ARGT, VGK, EWJ, FXI, EGPT, EIDO, GNR.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Pablo Gil
· Tickers:
BNO,
TTF,
LNG,
Gasóleo bajo en azufre,
UGA,
COPX,
DBC,
GSG,
CRB,
Amoníaco,
DBA,
Aluminio,
Níquel,
DBB,
GLD,
SLV,
WEAT,
CORN,
CANE,
ECH,
EPU,
Zambia,
Democratic Republic of the Congo,
EWZ,
EWC,
EWA,
United States (economy),
ARGT,
VGK,
EWJ,
FXI,
EGPT,
EIDO,
GNR
