US Retail Sales Rise 1.2% in August After Dropping in July

Summary

US retail sales rose 1.2% in August, beating forecasts, with broad gains across most categories. Michael McKee says the data and import-price pressure could give the Fed confidence to raise rates, while markets were little changed because focus remains on CPI, jobs, and the Fed decision. Lisa Abramowicz notes the market is unusually narrow and says front-end yields look vulnerable to falling if Fed messaging is less hawkish than priced.

• August retail sales rose 1.2%, beating estimates, with 13 of 14 categories higher.
• Ex-autos and ex-autos/gas sales were stronger than expected, including a 1.4% control-group gain.
• Michael McKee says consumer strength and tariff-related import prices could support a more hawkish Fed.
• Markets showed little reaction as investors focused on CPI, jobs, and the upcoming Fed decision.
• Lisa Abramowicz says retail and card-spending data confirm a resilient consumer.
• She argues the market is narrow and front-end rates are priced for hikes, leaving room for yields to fall.
• Yields were lower, with two-year yields around 4.60% and 10-year yields around 5%.
• Equity futures were modestly positive, with Nasdaq futures up about 0.6%.