Ideas
Avoid AI equities; drawdown risk rising.
He has moved away from AI equity exposure because the narrative has shifted from universal support to fear, cracks are showing, and fallout and losers in the AI race will likely cause the next significant risk-asset drawdown; he is not short but wants to be out of the epicenter.
Valuations imply negative decade for S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE is above 42, and whenever it has been 35 or higher, forward 10-year real returns have been negative, most commonly around -5% real. With rates rising and equities still high, valuations are stretched and he expects a decade of poor returns, so he is underweight equities and away from cap-weighted AI-heavy exposure.
Avoid triple-C bank loans; pressure building.
Triple-C bank loans are the weakest credit sector, down several points in price and about 5-6% in total return while higher-rated loans are up about 4%; floating-rate borrowers face pressure if the Fed hikes and many are racing to survive until the next cutting cycle.
AI credit spreads widening, avoid AI debt.
Within high yield and bank loans, AI-related borrowing has visibly widened, with AI junk bonds about 50 bps off tights and AI bank loans about 130 bps off tights, while non-AI credit remains strong; the bond market is rejecting AI ratings and he wants out of the AI epicenter.
Watch single-B for AI credit contagion.
AI credit stress has not yet bled into the single-B category, and he is watching whether it does; if single-B spreads widen, that would signal broader high-yield contagion.
Private credit is dangerous fuse.
Private credit is a growing danger because reported performance was inaccurate, liquidity is mislabeled, and private-credit firms and insurers can arbitrage ratings; he calls private credit the fuse that will spark broader losses in the next down cycle.
Buy equal-weight Fortune 500, avoid AI.
He recommends 30% of the portfolio in one equal-weighted Fortune 500 index, which weights holdings equally and has almost no AI concentration, deliberately avoiding the huge AI weighting in cap-weighted portfolios.
Own DoubleLine Total Return for quality.
He puts half of the 30% fixed income allocation in his low-risk DoubleLine Total Return Fund, which has no corporate bonds or AI bonds, very high credit quality, and a decent yield.
Own local-currency EM debt, dollar falls.
He allocates 15% of fixed income to local-currency emerging-market debt yielding over 7%, expecting bond gains plus currency gains as the dollar falls; it was the best-performing fixed income sector last year and he allocated to it for the first time in his career at the right time.
Short dollar; debasement accelerating.
He believes the dollar is heading lower, says the dollar is not a safe haven, and expects the debasement trade to accelerate in the next economic downturn; this supports local-currency EM debt and hard assets.
Add gold on pullback to $4,300.
He has moved back to a 10% gold allocation after cutting to 5% when gold was above $5,000; with the dollar expected to weaken, inflation risks, and real-asset diversification, the pullback to about $4,300 makes gold attractive again.
Own DCMT for rules-based commodities.
He uses the rules-based commodity strategy ETF DCMT for 10% of the portfolio; it rebalances monthly, is up 38% year-to-date, and provides diversified commodity exposure separate from AI.
Own DCRE for 6% short-duration yield.
He uses DCRE for part of his dry powder because it is a carefully managed, high-quality commercial real estate ETF at the top of the capital structure with duration of two and about a 6% yield, better than T-bills.
Own DLEX to beat cash, bonds.
He uses DLEX, his flexible fund with a dual mandate to beat cash and the Bloomberg bond index, because it has successfully done so across multiple periods and is his favorite fund to manage.
Oil shock persists; stay long energy.
Oil has moved back above $100, with WTI at $106 and Brent higher, diesel about $8 nationwide, and global oil reserves and SPR buffers low; he does not see the energy price shock going away and expects it to feed inflation and inflation psychology.
Stay short; avoid long Treasuries.
He wants to stay at the short end or belly of the Treasury curve, seven years or shorter, because inflation is likely to stay above 4% and the long end will continue to rise if left to market forces; he would want a 2% real yield before moving out.
Stay short; avoid long Treasuries.
He wants to stay at the short end or belly of the Treasury curve, seven years or shorter, because inflation is likely to stay above 4% and the long end will continue to rise if left to market forces; he would want a 2% real yield before moving out.
Avoid 30-year TIPS; rate risk remains.
Thirty-year TIPS do not protect investors from rising rates: their yields have moved in lockstep with nominal yields for six years, so TIPS prices fell just as much as nominals when rates rose 500 bps.
Buy short-term TIPS for inflation protection.
Short-maturity TIPS, five years and in, are the actual inflation protectors; longer TIPS expose investors to the same duration losses as nominal bonds.
Avoid PE-owned insurers, annuity companies.
Life insurers and annuity companies backed by private equity or private credit are dangerous because they buy affiliated private credit, use loose state regulators and offshore reinsurance, and may lack reserves to pay long-duration claims; he advises only mutual insurers for annuities.
This Julia LaRoche Show video, published September 16, 2026,
features Jeffrey Gundlach
discussing AI equities, SPY, Triple-C bank loans, AI-related junk bonds, AI-related bank loans, XB, BIZD, RSP, DBLTX, EMLC, UUP, GLD, DCMT, DCRE, DLEX, WTI, BNO, HO=F, TLT, Short/intermediate Treasuries (≤7 years), 30-year TIPS, STIP, Life insurance/annuity companies.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Jeffrey Gundlach
· Tickers:
AI equities,
SPY,
Triple-C bank loans,
AI-related junk bonds,
AI-related bank loans,
XB,
BIZD,
RSP,
DBLTX,
EMLC,
UUP,
GLD,
DCMT,
DCRE,
DLEX,
WTI,
BNO,
HO=F,
TLT,
Short/intermediate Treasuries (≤7 years),
30-year TIPS,
STIP,
Life insurance/annuity companies
