TARIFAÇO DOS EUA, GREVE E A NOVA DECISÃO DE MORAES QUE ISOLA BOLSONARO | Risco Brasil #47

Summary

Episode 47 of Risco Brasil covers a barrage of political and geopolitical events: the US tariff threat on Brazil, a trucker strike blocking access to the Port of Santos, surging oil prices amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, and a judicial decision preventing Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father Jair. The guests analyze the latest BTG/Nexus poll showing an election still polarized but with growing desire for a third alternative, as well as the outlook for another SELIC cut and the risk of a hard landing. The conversation ends with contrarian buy calls on Brazilian equities and a bullish structural view on oil from the geopolitical disruption.

• Flávio Bolsonaro banned from visiting his father for 90 days, deepening political uncertainty.
• New BTG/Nexus poll reveals rising preference for a candidate not aligned with Lula or Bolsonaro, though the two remain ahead.
• US tariffs on Brazil expected to be confirmed this week, becoming a central campaign topic.
• Trucker strike partially blocks the Port of Santos, adding logistical and supply-chain risks.
• Oil prices jump nearly 10% as the Strait of Hormuz faces permanent disruption risk, sustaining elevated energy costs.
• Matheus Spiess sees room for another SELIC cut but warns of a potential hard landing for the Brazilian economy.
• Charles Vix argues that extreme bearishness on Brazilian stocks is a buying opportunity.
• The podcast contrasts shallow campaign debates with the need for deeper discussion on AI, energy and long-term growth.