Ideas
TPA should boost CTA allocations.
In a total portfolio approach, optimizing hedge fund allocations alongside traditional assets leads to much higher allocations to CTAs, macro, and commodities because long-short equity and credit factors are already in the portfolio; trend following itself dynamically allocates risk like TPA, so TPA should be positive for CTAs.
Managed futures deserve 25% allocation.
Strategic asset allocation managed futures should be about 25% because they have zero correlation to stocks and bonds, do well when needed most, and are scalable and liquid; TPA could break benchmark anchoring and raise institutional allocations from around 50 basis points toward appropriate levels, though adoption may be slow and theatrical.
Long volatility is key portfolio diversifier.
Long volatility is the one true consistent diversifier and most important portfolio holding; like brakes on a race car, it provides control and allows investors to take more risk, while stocks and bonds merely slow you down without diversification; in 2026 long-vol implemented correctly via VIX and implied volatility broadly can make money.
Avoid front-month iron ore futures.
Front-month iron ore has become completely financialized, with CTAs now about 70% of front-month volume, changing the market's underlying properties and violating his thesis of trading non-financialized markets; he no longer wants to trade it.
Managed futures recover after drawdowns.
Managed futures drawdowns have historically been followed by faster recoveries and one to two years of very positive performance, especially when equity environments are challenging; investors should not try to time tops and bottoms.
Launch high-vol managed futures ETFs.
Retail investors want high volatility, leverage, and massive outliers, so the industry should launch high-vol managed futures ETF products running at 40-50% annualized risk, with fees proportional to volatility.
Capital efficiency drives return stacking.
With higher rates, capital efficiency is critical; the trend toward leverage is really about doing things with less capital, and return stacking or yield stacking can be more capital efficient when strategies are combined, so capital-efficient products should continue to grow.
Use balanced portfolio plus leverage.
Rather than taking more equity risk in wealth portfolios, investors should hold a balanced portfolio and then decide how much leverage to apply via return stacking and portable alpha; this is preferable to simply adding equities.
Institutions may buy managed futures ETFs.
Prediction that institutions will start buying ETFs for managed futures exposure, which would be a significant shift from hedge fund structures and validate managed futures ETF adoption.
Bond breakout: 10-year yields volatile.
Next year is the year of the bond breakout; US 10-year yields rise to 6% and then fall to 3.5%, implying a volatile rates path rather than a one-way bond trade.
Trend finally works in 2026.
Prediction that trend following will finally perform in 2026.
2026 pain trade: stocks down, rates up.
2026 will resemble 2022; the pain trade is equities down and rates up because nobody wants to sell stocks or take winners, everyone is using long-vol as a band-aid, and higher rates hurt bond diversifiers.
Equities up 25% in 2026.
Prediction that equities rise 25% in 2026, though he offers no detailed supporting thesis.
10-year Treasury yield to 6%.
He is in the camp expecting the US 10-year yield to reach 6% in 2026, implying higher rates and weaker Treasury bonds.
Higher inflation lifts Treasury yields.
2026 will see higher inflation, which means higher yields on Treasuries and pain for bonds.
Mag 7 bubble pressures broader equities.
2026 brings stable-to-down equity markets as the Magnificent 7 bubble bursts; because Mag 7 has a high S&P 500 weight, weakness there will put a pall on all equities, though Russell 2000 may not do poorly.
Mag 7 bubble pressures broader equities.
2026 brings stable-to-down equity markets as the Magnificent 7 bubble bursts; because Mag 7 has a high S&P 500 weight, weakness there will put a pall on all equities, though Russell 2000 may not do poorly.
Europe set for a resurgence.
Europe is starting to get its house in order and should see a resurgence, making it the optimistic area for 2026.
This Top Traders Unplugged video, published January 03, 2026,
features Alan Dunne, Andy Bear, Cem Karsan, Mark Raspinski, Katy Kaminski, Rob Carver, Nick Baltas, Yohai Gvirtz
discussing CTAS, Managed Futures, Long volatility, VIX, Iron ore front-month futures, High-vol managed futures ETF, Return stacking, Portable alpha, DBMF, TLT, SPY, Equities, MAGS, VGK.
18 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Alan Dunne,
Andy Bear,
Cem Karsan,
Mark Raspinski,
Katy Kaminski,
Rob Carver,
Nick Baltas,
Yohai Gvirtz
· Tickers:
CTAS,
Managed Futures,
Long volatility,
VIX,
Iron ore front-month futures,
High-vol managed futures ETF,
Return stacking,
Portable alpha,
DBMF,
TLT,
SPY,
Equities,
MAGS,
VGK
