Ideas
Private equity faces carnage and losses.
Chris Whalen sees absolute carnage in private equity: hundreds of portfolio companies cannot be sold, sponsors are selling companies to themselves to generate fees and provide liquidity, losses are rising, and the private equity trade is likely to suffer dramatically in 2026 as investors migrate back to public markets.
US-to-global stock rotation continues in 2026.
Chris Whalen says a number of managers were rotating out of US stocks into emerging markets, back into China and other global markets where they see greater opportunities, and he thinks this allocation out of US stocks into global stocks will continue in 2026.
Crypto too risky for most individuals.
After a dramatic crypto sell-off in which many people lost money, Chris Whalen says crypto is too risky for most individuals and criticizes media encouraging it.
Maxi market correction ahead, akin to 2008.
After a decade and a half of Fed monetary-policy-driven liquidity that lifted stocks and home prices, Chris Whalen expects a generational reset in credit metrics and asset valuations, a maxi market correction that could be memorialized alongside 2008.
US home prices face coming reset.
Chris Whalen expects a reset in US home prices over the next couple of years, with a housing market decline in 2027-28, because long-term rates and mortgage rates remain elevated due to budget deficits and Fed liquidity has inflated prices.
Walker & Dunlop faces fraud repurchase risk.
Chris Whalen cites Walker & Dunlop's couple-hundred-million-dollar fraud problem related to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans; if it has to buy back those loans, that is a death knell for a lender, highlighting a serious company-specific risk.
Non-bank lenders face coming testing.
Chris Whalen says an enormous number of new non-bank lenders have entered credit markets and will be tested in 2026, with LendingClub as one example of a portfolio name that has rocketed but faces testing.
Holds LendingClub; non-bank lenders tested.
Chris Whalen says LendingClub is one of the best-performing banks in his portfolio, a non-bank lender that has rocketed along but will be tested along with other newer entrants.
Corporate credit defaults set to rise.
Chris Whalen expects default rates to plateau in Q4 earnings and then go higher, normalizing the cost of credit; many new non-bank lenders will be tested, and banks' cautious credit commentary supports a worsening corporate credit environment in 2026.
Long-term Treasuries face upward yield pressure.
Chris Whalen says long-term Treasury rates and mortgage rates have not come down because the budget deficit and Washington uncertainty make investors demand higher rates to compensate for risk; the 10-year is the bellwether for housing and faces upward pressure.
Dollar likely loses more value 2026.
Chris Whalen expects the dollar to lose more value in 2026 after already being weak, due to fiscal deficits, fiat-currency discipline problems, and global central banks diversifying away from dollars.
Gold and silver have another strong year.
Chris Whalen expects another good year for gold and silver: central banks and large investors are buying to diversify away from dollars, deliverable supply is limited, silver has industrial demand, and gold has become the largest monetary asset with Shanghai now setting global prices.
Copper and scarce metals to rise.
Chris Whalen says copper and other metals in relatively short supply are going to do very well this year, and at a minimum in dollar terms they should go up.
Junior miners are acquisition targets.
Chris Whalen says smaller junior miners are going to get acquired as major miners come back in and try to rebuild productive capacity.
Owns NLY for mid-teens yield.
Chris Whalen owns Annaly (NLY) for yield, with a cost basis well below book value; he adds on extra cash, likes management, and views it as a well-run mortgage REIT holding government-guaranteed MBS leveraged with MSRs as a hedge, yielding mid-teens.
Owns Citi preferreds for high cash flow.
Chris Whalen owns Citigroup preferreds, the old TRUPS, because they have very high cash flow and Citi has been one of the best-performing banks in the country over the past year.
Sold US Bank preferred after selloff.
Chris Whalen sold his entire US Bank preferred position after it sold off considerably even though he likes the common, as a warning that preferreds can go down.
Owns Flagstar on cheap turnaround bet.
Chris Whalen says the only bank common he owns right now is Flagstar because he got in at a very cheap level and believes the management team led by Joe Otting will turn things around.
Big investment banks set for good year.
Chris Whalen expects Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and other big investment banks to have a good year due to a continued flow of deals and because they do well when market volatility rises.
Consumer-exposed banks may sell off.
Chris Whalen expects some bank names with consumer exposure to sell off in 2026, while other bank names come to the fore, after big consumer lenders outperformed last year.
This Julia LaRoche Show video, published January 03, 2026,
features Chris Whalen
discussing PSP, EEM, FXI, BTC, Cryptocurrencies, SPY, ITB, WD, Non-bank lenders, LC, LQD, TLT, USD, GLD, SILVER, COPPER, GDXJ, NLY, Citigroup preferred stock, US Bank preferred stock, FBC, GS, MS, Consumer-exposed banks.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Chris Whalen
· Tickers:
PSP,
EEM,
FXI,
BTC,
Cryptocurrencies,
SPY,
ITB,
WD,
Non-bank lenders,
LC,
LQD,
TLT,
USD,
GLD,
SILVER,
COPPER,
GDXJ,
NLY,
Citigroup preferred stock,
US Bank preferred stock,
FBC,
GS,
MS,
Consumer-exposed banks
