Bitcoin Is About to Enter Its Most Important Period of the Year

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 30, 2026 at 13:00  |  13:17  |  Milk Road Macro
Speakers
David Duong — Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase

Summary

David Duong breaks down Q4 Bitcoin and macro catalysts, including the low-odds Clarity Act vote, Treasury long-end debt buybacks, and the Jackson Hole speech. He argues Bitcoin's path is higher into Q4 on macro, flow, and technicals, while gold is a tactical bounce rather than a new debasement trade. He also sees long-end Treasury yields as likely having peaked.

  • David Duong sees the Clarity Act vote as a one-sided, low-odds positive catalyst for Bitcoin.
  • He expects Bitcoin to trend higher into Q4 if ETF inflows persist and liquidity does not tighten.
  • He views a volume-backed Bitcoin close above the 65-70 range as confirming a new regime.
  • He believes long-end Treasury yields have likely peaked and the Treasury has more influence than critics think.
  • He frames the gold bounce as tactical dip-buying, not a sustainable debasement trade.
  • He expects Warsh's Jackson Hole speech to avoid heavy forward guidance or a major rate signal.
Ideas
David Duong Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase 0:46
Clarity Act is asymmetric Bitcoin catalyst.
Bitcoin's direction is higher; the macro environment supports a sustained move into Q4 if ETF inflows persist and liquidity does not tighten aggressively. A close above the recent 65-70 range high would confirm a new trading regime, and the post-Jackson Hole, post-Labor Day window from early September through the US elections looks attractive for risk with Bitcoin at the center. Continued large deficits should also work in Bitcoin's favor.
BTC MED
David Duong Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase 3:25
Long-end Treasury yields have likely peaked.
David sees the Treasury actively managing the long end of the yield curve and believes the market is underestimating its firepower. He thinks long-end bond yields have already peaked, which would support bonds and risk assets, and he takes the other side of critics who say the buybacks are just debt reshuffling.
IEF TLT MED
David Duong Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase 7:04
Gold bounce higher; prior rally not repeated.
Gold's rally is not a return of the debasement trade; it is traders buying a dip at a level that looks cheap after a big reset. He expects gold to move directionally higher but does not expect it to repeat the same magnitude of appreciation seen previously.
GLD MED
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This Milk Road Macro video, published August 30, 2026, features David Duong discussing BTC, IEF, TLT, GLD. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: David Duong  · Tickers: BTC, IEF, TLT, GLD