Market Open: Stocks Mixed, Pain at the Pump as Gas Nears $4.50 • 9/18/26

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 18, 2026 at 14:08  |  3:47  |  CNBC
Speakers
Tom Kloza — Chief Energy Advisor, Gulf Oil
Natasha Kaneva — Head of Global Commodities Strategy, JP Morgan
Jessica Ettinger — Anchor, CNBC
Mustafa Suleyman — CEO, AI, Microsoft

Summary

The CNBC business news update opened with mixed US equity averages, strength in chipmakers, and elevated oil, gasoline, and diesel prices. Gulf Oil's Tom Kloza warned that refinery outages are causing sharp regional gasoline price spikes and called the outlook daunting. A JP Morgan note said the oil team has stopped forecasting the Iran war endgame as economic red lines are crossed without a clear exit. Microsoft discussed AI liability, Russia seized Nestle assets, and Apple's iPhone 18 went on sale.

  • US stocks opened mixed: Dow lower on IBM and Disney weakness, S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher, chipmakers mostly green.
  • US crude oil traded above $102 a barrel; regular gasoline neared $4.50 and diesel hit a record $6.45 per gallon.
  • Tom Kloza said refinery outages at ExxonMobil and Valero caused Chicago gasoline prices to jump 40-60 cents per gallon and called the outlook challenging.
  • JP Morgan's oil team stopped forecasting the Iran war endgame after red lines like $100 oil and $5 pump prices were crossed without a deal.
  • Microsoft published an AI code of conduct, with Mustafa Suleyman arguing AI manufacturers should bear product liability.
  • Russia seized Nestle assets, extending seizures of Western corporate assets; Apple's iPhone 18 launched and S&P Dow Jones indexes rebalanced.
Ideas
Tom Kloza Chief Energy Advisor, Gulf Oil 0:53
Refinery outages keep gasoline prices elevated.
The gasoline market has zero tolerance for refinery outages. Recent problems at ExxonMobil's Joliet, Illinois refinery and Valero's Port Arthur, Texas refinery have already pushed Chicago-area prices up by 40-60 cents a gallon. Kloza calls the situation daunting and challenging going forward, implying gasoline prices remain vulnerable to supply disruptions and could stay elevated.
Natasha Kaneva Head of Global Commodities Strategy, JP Morgan 1:22
Iran war keeps oil risk premium.
JP Morgan's oil team has stopped trying to forecast the Iran war endgame because the Trump administration has blown past assumed economic red lines—oil above $100, pump prices near $5, and 10-year Treasury yields above 5%—without forcing a deal to stop the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With the exit strategy less clear six months in, oil faces persistent geopolitical supply uncertainty and a risk premium worth monitoring.
Up Next

This CNBC video, published September 18, 2026, features Tom Kloza, Natasha Kaneva discussing UGA, WTI. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tom Kloza, Natasha Kaneva  · Tickers: UGA, WTI