Warsh Signals Inflation Progress | Open Interest 7/1/2026

Summary

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, reiterated a strict refusal to provide forward guidance while noting that inflation expectations have eased. Central bank panelists including Lagarde, Bailey, and Macklem discussed diverging policy paths, the dual impact of AI on inflation and productivity, and financial stability risks from leverage. Meanwhile, Shana Sissel positioned for rising volatility with alternatives, Mandeep Singh viewed Meta’s cloud pivot negatively, and National Grid CEO Zoë Yujnovich touted a de-risked AI power investment backed by Microsoft.

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh firmly rejects forward guidance, says inflation expectations have eased but the path to 2% remains data-dependent.
• ECB President Christine Lagarde sees risks to inflation and growth as more balanced, notes oil price decline giving some breathing room.
• BOE Governor Andrew Bailey highlights a softening UK economy and delayed energy price effects, keeping rates on hold.
• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem describes a weak economy with above-target inflation but anchored expectations, no stagflation.
• Shana Sissel of Banrion Capital Management recommends diversifying into managed futures, long/short equity, market neutral, commodities, and trend volatility to hedge rising volatility.
• Bloomberg Intelligence's Mandeep Singh interprets Meta's cloud compute pivot as a negative signal for the stock.
• National Grid CEO confirms a $1.75B US AI power investment with a firm Microsoft PPA, strengthening the company's growth story.
• Michael Burry's short positions in Caterpillar, Nvidia, and Tesla were noted, while oil prices fell on positive Iran-US technical talks.