Name: Are Rate Cuts Dead?
Uploaded: 2026-06-17T20:45:09+00:00
Duration: 3186 s

Speakers

Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Summary

Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg discuss why a full-scale war with Iran barely dented markets and what could actually trigger a crash. They analyze SpaceX as a pure flow-driven trade ahead of employee share unlocks, share a bearish crude oil thesis, and highlight Robinhood as a top pick. They also debate Bitcoin signals, noting a bullish MVRV Z-score but waiting for deeper sentiment cleansing before buying.

Equities remain extremely resilient; only a credit crisis is likely to end the bull run.
SpaceX is a low-float technical trade driven by index buying and retail FOMO, with unlocks starting around August.
An ocean of new Iranian oil supply will push crude prices lower, easing global inflation.
Robinhood (HOOD) is a high-conviction long, expected to outperform Bitcoin over the next six months.
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score flashes a bullish buy signal, but the hosts wait for deeper capitulation.
The Iran deal is just a pause; another flare-up is likely in 9-18 months.
The upcoming Fed meeting under Chair Warsh could impact sentiment, but falling oil reduces the risk of a hawkish pivot.

Ideas

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 2:44

Buy equities on dips until credit crisis.

Equity markets shrugged off a full-blown war with Iran, proving extreme resilience. The only catalyst that can truly crack this market is a credit crisis or financial engineering failure, not geopolitics. Until credit problems arise, equities are a buy on every selloff. The decline in oil prices post-Iran deal further supports equities by reducing inflation pressure and the risk of rate hikes.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 28:30

Long SpaceX until August unlocks.

SpaceX is a low-float, high-fully diluted value trade driven purely by flows, not fundamentals. Index inclusion will force significant buying (estimated $7-10 billion) and retail is FOMO-ing in. The first employee lock-up expires 20-30% of shares starting after the first quarterly earnings report, with no unlocks until August or September. You can be comfortably long until then, but must sell two weeks before unlocks to avoid front-running.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 34:42

Short crude oil on supply glut.

An ocean of oil is about to hit the market as Iranian oil refills global stocks under the Iran deal. This supply glut will push crude prices lower, which is extremely bearish for inflation. Crude already dropped from above $100 to the $80s and the move should continue.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 36:54

Wait for Bitcoin disdain to buy.

Bitcoin has lost mindshare and is in apathy mode, driven by Michael Saylor's credit problem. The real buying opportunity will come when sentiment turns to true disdain—when traditional media gravedances and people question if the Bitcoin era is over. Then it will be time to buy for a long-term target of $1 million.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 38:00

Robinhood will outperform Bitcoin.

Robinhood (HOOD) is building the everything financial app, making inroads into institutional trading and diversifying away from crypto revenue. It is attacking the traditional financial system, capturing the full lifespan of a consumer, and has multiple ways to benefit regardless of Bitcoin's direction. It will outperform Bitcoin over the next six months.

Are Rate Cuts Dead?

Summary

Ideas

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